By Belt, R. van de, D. Piljic and H. Stegeman, 2012.

Economische stagnatie is voor de komende jaren een meer waarschijnlijk scenario voor Nederland dan de gematigde structurele economische groei van de afgelopen decennia. Dit stellen Rabobank-economen Hans Stegeman, Ruth van de Belt en Danijela Piljic. Redenen voor stagnatie zijn onder meer het afvlakken van de verhoging van het onderwijsniveau van de beroepsbevolking, overgang naar een meer duurzame economie en schuldafbouw. De lagere economische groei maakt de financiering van de huidige publieke voorzieningen lastiger en leidt daarmee tot een onderschatting van de beleidsopgave.

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By William Baumol, 1967.

The justification of a macroeconomic model should reside primarily in its ability to provide insights into the workings of observed phenomena. Its aggregation of diverse variables usually deny it the elegance and the rigor that are provided by microeconomic analysis at its best. Yet macromodels have succeeded in explaining the structure of practical problems and in offering guidance for policy to a degree that has so far eluded the more painstaking modes of economic analysis. This article hopes to follow in the tradition-the structure of its basic model is rudimentary. Yet it can perhaps shed some light on a variety of economic problems of our generation.

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The World Bank, 2013.
The global economy appears to be transitioning toward a period of more stable, but slower growth. Global gross domestic product (GDP), which slowed in mid-2012 is recovering, and a modest acceleration in quarterly GDP is expected during the course of 2013. That progress will be masked in the annual data, however, with whole-year growth for 2013 projected at 2.2 percent, a touch slower than in 2012. The strengthening of quarterly growth will show up in whole-year global GDP growth of 3.0 percent for 2014 and 3.3 percent in 2015.
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The World Bank, 2014.
This edition of the Global Economic Prospects, a World Bank flagship report, describes the forces acting on the global economy and its implications on developing countries using evidence based analysis. The report includes forecasts for individual developing regions and countries, as well as a research focused chapter examining capital flows and risks to developing countries.
The report describes a global economy that is at a turning point. For the first time in five years, there are indications that a self-sustaining recovery has begun among high-income countries – suggesting that they may now join developing countries as a second engine of growth in the global economy. The stronger growth in high-income countries reflects progress in both private- and public-sector healing in the wake of the financial crisis. In particular, the drag from fiscal consolidation and policy uncertainty is expected to ease sharply in the United States and in high-income Europe. The stronger growth in rich countries is expected to boost demand for the exports of developing countries and contribute to a modest acceleration in their growth. Overall, global trade growth which has been particularly weak is expected to strengthen over next few years reaching about 5.1 percent by 2016. 
The counterpart to the strengthening and normalization of output in high-income countries will be a normalization of policy – including a gradual withdrawal of quantitative easing policies. Despite the turmoil that was associated with the speculation about the beginning of the taper during the spring and summer of 2013, the impact thus far of the actual announcement and initial implementation of the taper has been very smooth. The Global Economic Prospects describes a baseline scenario where this gradual process is assumed to continue, resulting in a modest reduction in capital flows to developing countries from 4.6 percent of their GDP in 2013 to around 4.0 percent in 2016.Whatever drag this implies for developing country growth is more than offset by the additional export demand due to stronger high-income country growth. While the smooth adjustment process is the most likely scenario, the novelty of the unwinding process has only begun and the rapid spike in long-term interest rates during the summer of 2013 suggests that a much more abrupt rise in long-term interest rates is also a possibility, if less likely. In such a disorderly adjustment scenario, capital flows to developing countries could decline temporarily by 50 percent or more for a period of several months – potentially pushing one or more countries into crisis. Evidence suggests that countries with large current account deficits or those that have had a rapid accumulation of credit in recent years could be most vulnerable to a precipitous tightening of international financial conditions. Other risks, such as those deriving from uncertainty over US debt-ceiling discussions, crisis in the Euro Area and high borrowing and investment rates in China have become less likely but remain.
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The World Bank, 2013.

Major structural transformations under way in the global economy will shape the economic fortunes of nations for decades to come. The gradual acceleration of trend growth in developing countries, which started during the 1990s, has increased their contribution not only to global investment but also to global saving. This is a significant change from a few decades ago, when many considered low national saving rates and difficulty in attracting foreign capital to be constraints to investment and growth in developing countries. Collectively, developing countries’ domestic saving stood at 34 percent of their gross domestic product (GDP) in 2010, up from 21 percent in 1970, and their investment was around 33 percent of their GDP in 2012, up from 22 percent. As a result of the upward trends in these rates and an accelerated economic expansion, developing countries’ share of global saving now stands at 46 percent, nearly double the level of the mid-1960s.

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OECD Economic Outlook 94 database, 2013.
La economía mundial continúa su expansión a un ritmo moderado, con un poco de aceleración del crecimiento previsto en 2014 y 2015. Pero las previsiones de crecimiento mundial se han revisado a la baja de manera significativa para este año y el 2014, en gran parte debido a las perspectivas más débiles en muchos de los mercados emergentes economías (EME ). Riesgos a la baja dominan y la política deben abordarlas.
Contrariamente a la situación en las primeras fases de la recuperación cuando el estímulo en las EME tenían positivo efectos indirectos sobre el crecimiento en las economías avanzadas, el medio ambiente mundial pueden ahora actuar como un amplificador y un mecanismo de transmisión de los shocks negativos de las EME.

OECD Economic Outlook: GDP Growth 2012 (XLS).
Demand and Output (XLS).
Wages Costs Unemployment and inflation (XLS).

by Abdul Azeez Erumban, Klaas de Vries and Bart van Ark, CB, 2013.
This paper presents the methodology for The Conference Board Global Economic
Outlook 2014, including projections for 11 major regions and individual estimates for 33
mature and 22 emerging market economies for 2014, 2014-2019, and 2020-2025. The
projections are based on a supply-side growth accounting model that estimates the
contributions of the use of factor inputs – labor and capital –, and productivity growth to
the growth of real Gross Domestic Product (GDP). While labor growth rates are
estimated using information on demographic changes, capital and productivity growth are
estimated on the basis of a wide range of related variables during past periods. The trend
growth rates that are obtained from this exercise are adjusted for possible deviations
between actual and potential output.
See tables in the document.
M. Fouquin, H. Guimbard, C. Herzog & D. Una, CEPII, 2012.
This World Economic Overview highlights the main changes in the world economy in the long run and how nations took part in it. Trends over some forty years are featured in the overview : from 1960 to 2013 for GDP, and from 1967 to 2010 for international trade in goods and services.
The first part of the overview is dedicated to changes in the world ranking of economic and population weights as well as in the one of nations development levels.
The second part describes trade flows. It sets out the growing share of trade in goods and services in the world production along with trade balances and imbalances across nations. Trade in goods and services, reflecting and explaining global and national transformations, is observed in detail. On one side through the product structure evolution, on the other side through the changes in geographical breakdowns. In the third part, specialization indicators – in terms of comparative
advantages – are presented for about twenty major countries.
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Anil Markandya and Dale N., 2012.

The Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer was agreed in September 1987 as an international response to the significant threats to the environment and human health posed by continued use of ozone depleting substances (ODS) in the global economy. The treaty protects the ozone layer by establishing controls for the consumption and production of these chemicals, used in a great many industrial, commercial and consumer applications across a range of economic sectors. The agreement included a 50 per cent phase down of CFCs and a freeze on halons, only for developed countries. Subsequent Amendments and Adjustments added new chemicals to the control schedule, a timetabled phase-out, and extended the controls to developing.

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PASHMINA., 2010.
PASHMINA WP1 Global meta-analysis aimed to deliver comprehensive qualitative scenarios for Europe by scanning the range of development options up to 2030 and 2050, harmonising and integrating quantitative results from many previous future-studies and developing a new generation of long term metamodels.
The analysis has been done developing two parallel streams of investigation: Qualitative analysis: identification of “shifts” in future trends in relation to a plurality of socio-economic, technological, territorial, environmental and institutional factors (Task 1.1). This task aimed to develop visions of alternative futures (exploratory scenarios) based on a qualitative analysis of different pathways of development dependent on key drivers and paradigm shifts. A community of experts of different disciplines has been involved in a DELPHI survey. Special attention has been given to possible paradigm shifts in the energy-transport-environment nexus and the land-use and territorial functions within the next decades in Europe, developing separate analyses for: 1) energy transition the climate change challenge; 2) changes in urban form and dominant transport patterns; 3) changes in rural land use and biodiversity. Quantitative analysis: developing of meta-models and long-term forecasts (Tasks 1.2 to 1.5). The metamodels address the main long-term evolutions of key economic, social, technological and environmental indicators, showing up possible future states of the system at 2050, including the impact of different paradigm shifts that may result by a number of unfolding demographic economic, social and cultural trends, global environmental changes and breakthrough discontinuities, as for instance the emergence of new technologies and applications (e.g. nanotechnologies, competitive solar energy, zero-emission technological process etc.).
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Posey, John., Book 2011.

The economic turmoil of the last 2 years has shown that hyperglobalized capitalism is inherently crisis prone, and that it has been unable to create sustainable prosperity. Unfortunately, the left has failed to convincingly refute Margaret Thatcher’s assertion that “there is no alternative.” There is, however, a growing social movement that aims to promote small, locally-scaled enterprises. This essay argues that the local economy movement can potentially provide a unifying principle for a new progressive agenda. However, localizers must take seriously the possible loss of gains from trade. In addition, it is important to resist a naive localism that romanticizes the local while ignoring action at other scales.
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Schier, Michaela, and Karin Jurczyk., 2008.
Since the Seventh Family Report takes place in Germany, the concept of family as a manufacturing power, wide input into the debate about family. That familial advanced services into the limelight, it is first due to the conversion from time budget data into economic benchmarks. They show that the time required for services in private households is significantly higher than for employment. For the so-called 'unpaid work 1.7 times was spent on time compared to gainful employment in 2001. The conversion values ​​in the gross national product shows that the value of households in 2001 approximately to that of the manufacturing industry equivalent (excluding construction) and the area of trade, hotels and restaurants and transport together.
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Schoeman, Maxi. 2011.
The ambitions of the global South for a larger share of global wealth and political power are at least partly being played out on the African continent. A snapshot of the scope and nature of the involvement of the BRICs and other emerging markets in Africa is provided, focusing on the economic (trade, investment and development assistance) and political spheres of these growing relations. The article concludes, first, that increasing Africa-South relations indicate a relative decline in Africa-North ties, that the shift in Africa’s trade relations from North to South results in trade creation rather than trade diversion and that South partners provide much needed infrastructure development assistance to the
continent. Politically these relations are formalised in a host of frameworks and associations and operate in fundamentally different ways from those between Africa and its erstwhile colonial masters. It is doubtful, though, to what extent Africa’s capacity to influence the global agenda is strengthened, especially given that not a single African country is (yet) a member of the ‘South Big Four’, the BRIC.
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Skordili, Sophia., Book, 2013.
In the light of the current Eurozone crisis, an increasing number of Athenians from all walks of life are forced to cut spending on staple goods, such as food. Food poverty in the context of a European metropolis is the result of inadequate households' income, as well as limited choices of sourcing food in the city due to food retail sector consolidation. Corporate retailers have been criticized for greed and unethical pricing practices. The current crisis can be seen as a catalyst for change, a turning point of the homogenized food geography of Athens. Food poverty is one of the most remarked signs of the urban crisis. The time has come for the Athens Municipality to assume a leading role in urban food planning and formulate a Food Policy Plan for the city.
Smith, Laurence C., Book, 2011.
It is easier to know what cannot be than to foretell what will be. There was never any possibility that Iraq would become a secular democracy: toppling Saddam Hussein meant destroying a secular regime, however despotic, while post-invasion politics was bound to reflect sectarian divisions. Similarly, there was never the remot­est prospect of post-communist Russia becoming a western-style economy; 70 years of Soviet rule had produced a military-industrial rustbelt, lacking the most rudimentary preconditions of a viable market system.
More recently, Afghanistan was never going to turn into anything resembling a liberal democracy. Unlike Saddam's Iraq, a modern tyranny, Afghanistan has never been a modern state. Even Soviet forces, far more ruthless than the western allies are today, could not create such a state where none had existed. As soon as the allies went beyond their initial objective of disabling terrorist bases, it was clear that they, too, would be defeated.
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Smith, Michael Harrison., Earthscan, 2005.
Working in the Mirvac School of Sustainable Development at Bond University one would think that most of the staff would know exactly what sustainability is. Well, this reviewer has struggled with the concept since the term came into vogue around 5 years ago. Finding a useful definition that offered a ready explanation to students covering many disciplines and applications remained elusive. That has now changed. The Natural Advantage of Nations edited by Karlson Hargroves and Michael H. Smith provides a comprehensive explanation of sustainability and much more. The book is a compilation of well-researched essays from a crosssection of mainly academic writers and many of the case studies and policy frameworks discussed are Australian. The book is of interest to anyone with an interest in infrastructure especially in the energy, transport and water industries which are the subject of separate chapters in this book.
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By Spatial Foresight Öir, BBSR, Pöry, and BOKU-Met, 2011.

The financial crisis was triggered in the US in 2007, subsequently developed into the fiercest economic crisis since the 1930s to hit a majority of developed countries, and still continues at the time of writing in early 2011. In Europe, the industrial motors that got off relatively easily – such as Germany, Sweden, Slovakia and the Czech Republic – have restarted, but the structural deficits in many countries and, more alarming, in the Union as a whole, persist. Ireland, Greece and Spain still remain in unfavourable situations with financial and real estate markets still disordered and public debts potentially exceeding safe levels. Other countries, such as Portugal, Romania, Italy, France, the UK and Lithuania, still struggle to reach growth levels that could lead to the economic path they were on before the crisis. Therefore, at the outset it must be mentioned that this crisis paper can only illustrate a snapshot of the economic developments, mainly the status 2010. For that reason, a strong focus was on regional differences rather than on more global predictions for the near-term future.


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State of the Future 2012., Milennium Project, 2012. 
El mundo está mejorando más de lo que los pesimistas saben, sin embargo, los riesgos futuros son peores, más de lo que los optimistas indican. Después de 16 años de la investigación global de futuros del Millennium Project, es claro que hay un mayor consenso en cómo construir un futuro mejor de lo que se comenta en los medios de comunicación. Si tenemos en cuenta las muchas decisiones equivocadas y las buenas decisiones que no se toman -día tras día y año tras año en todo el mundo-, es increíble que todavía estemos haciendo tantos progresos.
El informe de este año comprueba que el mundo es cada vez más rico, más sano, mejor educado, más pacífico y mejor conectado y que la gente está viviendo más tiempo, aunque la mitad del mundo se encuentra en una posición inestable. Los manifestantes de todo el mundo muestran una falta de voluntad creciente para tolerar la toma de decisiones poco éticas de las élites del poder. Una generación cada vez más educada y conectada a Internet se levanta contra el abuso de poder. Los precios de los alimentos están aumentando, los mantos freáticos están cayendo, la corrupción y el crimen organizado están aumentando, la viabilidad ambiental para nuestro soporte de vida está disminuyendo, la deuda y la inseguridad económica están aumentando, el cambio climático continúa, y la brecha entre ricos y pobres sigue incrementándose peligrosamente. Sin embargo, la pobreza extrema ha disminuido de 52% en 1981 a un 20% en 2010.
Cada vez es más evidente que el mundo tiene los recursos para hacer frente a sus desafíos. Tam-bién es cada vez más claro que las estructuras para la toma de decisiones actuales no están ha-ciendo buenas decisiones lo suficientemente rápido y en la escala necesaria para abordar realmente los desafíos globales. La Conferencia Río +20 de las Naciones Unidas sobre el Desa-rrollo Sustentable, motivó a muchos de los líderes de las organizaciones no gubernamentales, empresas, universidades y municipios a propiciar la sinergia de sus esfuerzos sin esperar la ac-ción del gobierno nacional.
Nuevas formas de acción colaborativa están empezando a surgir, desde la auto-organización de la primavera árabe / el despertar de los sitios Web como y, que comparten programas para impresora 3D de código abierto, a fin de que las personas se vuelvan los fabricantes locales, y otros sitios Web para el poder popular político como Se han formado asociaciones público-privadas y coaliciones de voluntarios para luchar contra la enfer-medad y la pobreza y para crear un planeta más inteligente. Los sistemas de información y co-municación, desde los simples teléfonos móviles hasta las supercomputadoras, están aumentan-do la toma de decisiones humanas en todo el mundo. Es razonable suponer que las tasas de acele-ración de estos cambios eventualmente conectarán a la humanidad y a la tecnología hacia nuevas formas para la toma de decisiones con retroalimentación global en tiempo real.
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Strategic Foresight Initiative., 2011.
This document contains preliminary research conducted on behalf of the Strategic Foresight Initiative on the Climate Change driver. This research is intended to serve as a discussion point for further discussions, and does not represent a forecast by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). This paper is a starting point for conversations around a highly complex topic, and SFI encourages feedback about this paper from the emergency management community. 
SFI is a collaborative effort of the emergency management community that is being facilitated by FEMA. SFI was launched so the emergency management community can seek to understand how the world is changing, and how those changes may affect the future of emergency management. It will do so by encouraging members of the community to think about how the world may look over the next 15 years, and what steps the community should begin taking to thrive in that world. Participants in SFI include emergency managers at the Federal, state, and local level, subject matter experts on relevant topics, and other stakeholders.
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By OECD, 2006.

Cities are home to more than half the people living in OECD countries and almost 50 % of the output and jobs of many nations is found in their largest city. Though most cities have higher economic growth, foreign investment and labour productivity than the rest of the country, they are also more polluted, crime-ridden and socially disparate. A new OECD report, Competitive Cities in the Global Economy gives case studies and policy recommendations to help cities, often the drivers of national economies, continue to thrive. The book also provides a strong statistical database on the world’s principal cities.

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