United Nations, 2016

The report will highlight that global economic growth slowed in 2015 amid low commodity prices, large capital flows and increased financial market volatility. The pivot of global growth is shifting again to developed economies, as major developing economies such as Brazil, China and the Russian Federation are facing an economic slowdown. For the outlook, generally less restrictive fiscal and still accommodative monetary policy stances worldwide would help to improve growth in 2016 and 2017. But such improvement is projected to be modest and growth will remain below potential as several cyclical and structural headwinds persist. Among others, macroeconomic uncertainties, volatility in exchange rates and capital flows, diminished trade flows, and stagnant investment and productivity growth would continue to constrain global economic growth.

The report emphasizes that policymakers in developing economies should ensure that steady poverty reduction and stable job markets are maintained amid an economic slowdown. To address subdued economic activity, policymakers could consider increasing the role of fiscal policies and targeted labour market strategies to boost productivity, employment generation and output growth. More broadly, the report urged that policymakers in developed and developing countries have stronger and more coordinated effort to achieve inclusive and sustainable economic growth, which is a critical factor in securing the 2030 Sustainable Development Goals.

PWC, 2015

PWC research team project the world economy to grow at an average of just over 3% per annum in the period 2014 – 50, doubling in size by 2037 and nearly tripling by 2050. But they expect a slowdown in global growth after 2020, as the rate of expansion in China and some other major emerging economies moderates to a more sustainable long-term rate, and as working age population growth slows in many large economies. The global economic power shift away from the established advanced economies in North America, Western Europe and Japan will continue over the next 35 years. 


Download this file (world-in-2050-february-2015.pdf)The Word in 2050[ ]

Jean Fouré, Agnès Bénassy-Quéré & Lionel Fontagné, CEPII 2012

We present growth scenarios for 147 countries to 2050, based on MaGE (Macroeconometrics of the Global Economy), a three-factor production function that includes capital, labour and energy. We improve on the literature by accounting for the energy constraint through dynamic modelling of energy productivity, and departing from the assumptions of either a closed economy or full capital mobility by applying a Feldstein-Horioka-type relationship between savings and investment rates.

Our results suggest that, accounting for relative price variations, China could account for 33% of the world economy in 2050, which would be much more than the United States (9%), India (8%), the European Union (12%) and Japan (5%). They suggest also that China would overtake the United States around 2020 (2040 at constant relative prices). However, in terms of standards of living, measured through GDP per capita in purchasing power parity, China would still lag 10 percent behind the United States at the 2050 horizon.

Abdul Azeez Erumban &Klaas de Vries for The Conference Board, 2015

This year’s outlook provides insight on the following: What is the outlook for world economies in the short to medium term: 2016, 2016-2020 and 2021-2025? What are the biggest emerging political and economic risks for companies? How does an environment of slow global growth and slowing globalization challenge global businesses? Can it present opportunities as well? Where are the chances for faster growth, and what constraints must businesses overcome to find them? It offers regional breakdowns of risks and opportunities and suggests strategies to help companies find winning formulas even in an unhelpful business environment.

Download this file (TCB-1595-Global-Economic-Outlook-2016-ReportRP1.pdf)Global Economic Outlook 2016[ ]

OECD, 2012

This report presents the results from a new model for projecting growth of OECD and major non-OECD economies over the next 50 years as well as imbalances that arise. A baseline scenario assuming gradual structural reform and fiscal consolidation to stabilise government-debt-to GDP ratios is compared with variant scenarios assuming deeper policy reforms. One main finding is that growth of the non-OECD G20 countries will continue to outpace OECD countries, but the difference will narrow substantially over coming decades. In parallel, the next 50 years will see major changes in the composition of the world economy. In the absence of ambitious policy changes, global imbalances will emerge which could undermine growth. However, ambitious fiscal consolidation efforts and deep structural reforms can both raise long run living standards and reduce the risks of major disruptions to growth by mitigating global imbalances.


Download this file (2060 policy paper FINAL.pdf)OECD Economy Outlook 2060[ ]

World Bank Group, 2016

Doing Business 2016 is the 13th in a series of annual reports investigating the regulations that enhance business activity and those that constrain it. Doing Business presents quantitative indicators on business regulation and the protection of property rights that can be compared across 189 economies and over time.

Doing Business measures aspects of regulation affecting 11 areas of the life of a business. Ten of these areas are included in this year’s ranking on the ease of doing business: starting a business, dealing with construction permits, getting electricity, registering property, getting credit, protecting minority investors, paying taxes, trading across borders, enforcing contracts and resolving insolvency. Doing Business also measures features of labor market regulation, which is not included in this year’s ranking.


The objectives of FLAGSHIP are:
i) Understanding and assessing the state of the art of forward looking methodologies in relation to Grand Societal Challenges (GSC) and developing tools and modelling frameworks beyond state of the art;
ii) Applying an enhanced set of forward looking methods and tools to support EU policies, by analysing reference and alternative scenarios of long-term demographic, legal, economic, social and political evolutions of Europe, in a world context, and assessing potential progress in technological and social innovation;
iii) Driving change, producing a set of EU-relevant policy recommendations on the potential of the EU for transition and change.

The project has taken stock of the existing forward-looking studies: a review has been done of the central questions, key trends, critical uncertainties and scenario frameworks; proceed to apply and combine enhanced qualitative and quantitative methods mastered by the project partners in a coherent framework, producing a combination of GSC-driven qualitative and quantitative scenarios - coping with a range of possible global paradigm shifts and geo-political changes - and engaging a community of experts and stakeholders in a scenario thinking and assessment exercise; focus further on EU policy responses to emerging transition challenges, and the potential role of EU in shaping global governance as well as new territorial dynamics within the continent, aiming to deliver policy recommendations to support the formulation of strategic EU policy agendas.

The project is articulated in 10 WPs, providing a consistent sequence of research activities with a good balance between methodological developments and policy applications addressing long term GSC scenarios. 


Download this file (FLAGSHIP_D1.2_v2.0_final_1Oct2013 (1).pdf)FLAGSHIP 1.2[ ]