Citibank, 2011

The Middle East will join emerging Asia and Africa as three of the fastest growing trading regions in the world, as the global economy sees fresh new trade corridors emerge over the next four decades, forecasts Citibank .

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Susan E. Fleck, Bureau of Labor Statistics, May 2009

A study of 13 countries reveals that measures of hours worked based on administrative sources are relatively low while measures based on establishment and labor force surveys are relatively high; thus, although ever improving, these measures cannot yet be taken at face value and are useful only for broad comparisons.

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Lisa Sella, Gianna Vivaldo, Michael Ghil and Andreas Groth, Eurostat, 2012

The present work applies several advanced spectral methods ((Ghil, et al., 2002)) to the analysis of macroeconomic fluctuations in Italy, The Netherlands, and the United Kingdom. These methods provide valuable time-and-frequency-domain tools that complement traditional time-domain analysis, and are thus fairly well known by now in the geosciences and life sciences, but not yet widespread in quantitative economics. In particular, they enable the identification and characterization of nonlinear trends and dominant cycles – including seasonal and multiannual components – that characterize the behavior of each time series. These tools are therewith well adapted to the analysis of short and noisy data, like the macroeconomic time series analyzed herein.

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UNWTO, 2011

International tourist arrivals are forecast to reach 1.8 billion by 2030 according to the newly released UNWTO long-term forecast, Tourism Towards 2030. The report, presented on the occasion of the 19th session of the UNWTO General Assembly, confirms that international tourism will continue to grow in a sustained manner in the next two decades. 

International tourism will continue to grow in the period 2010-2030, but at a more moderate pace than the past decades, with the number of international tourist arrivals worldwide increasing by an average 3.3% a year. As a result, an average 43 million additional international tourists will join the tourism marketplace every year. 

At the projected pace of growth, arrivals will pass the 1 billion mark by 2012, up from 940 million in 2010. By 2030, arrivals are expected to reach 1.8 billion, meaning that in two decades’ time, 5 million people will be crossing international borders for leisure, business or other purposes such as visiting friends and family every day.

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European Commission, DG Environment & DG Eurostat, 2007-2010

The Beyond GDP initiative is about developing indicators that are as clear and appealing as GDP, but more inclusive of environmental and social aspects of progress. Economic indicators such as GDP were never designed to be comprehensive measures of prosperity and well-being. We need adequate indicators to address global challenges of the 21st century such as climate change, poverty, resource depletion, health and quality of life.

Go to Beyond GDP website

Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN)
Secretariat of the Economic Policy Committee (AWG)
European Commission, 2009

This report provides a description of underlying macroeconomic assumptions and projection methodologies of the age-related expenditure projections for all Member States over the period 2009-2060. On the basis of these underlying assumptions and methodologies, age-related expenditures covering pensions, health care, long-term care, education and unemployment transfers are envisaged to be present to the ECOFIN council in May 2009.

Dialog – Population Policy Acceptance Study (PPAS)
RTDinfo, Magazine on European Research. EC, 2006.

When are you ‘old’? Nowadays, this is becoming at an increasingly advanced age. The terminology reflects the nuances of a changing reality: ‘active ageing’, senior citizens, the elderly and the very elderly. But whatever the words that are used, Europe is greying and it is a phenomenon that poses major challenges for the public finances (health care, pensions), the economy (shrinking workforce) and, at the human level, for the families and social organisations whose support is so vital in the twilight years. Researchers on the Soccare and Care Work projects are investigating all of these issues.

To see more information

Uri Dadush, Bennett Stancil

International Economic Bulletin, November 2009

The world’s economic balance of power is shifting dramatically. By 2050, the United States and Europe, long the traditional leaders of the global economy, will be joined in economic size by emerging markets in Asia and Latin America. China will become the world’s largest economy in 2032, and grow to be 20 percent larger than the United States by 2050. Over the next forty years, nearly 60 percent of G20 economic growth will come from Brazil, China, India, Russia, and Mexico alone. However, these emerging markets will not rise among the world’s richest countries in per capita terms: their average income in 2050 will still be 40 percent below that of the G7 states today. The end of the decades-old correlation between economic size and per capita income will have profound effects on global economic governance.

The G20 in 2050

Lionel Fontagné
Paris School of Economics (Université Paris 1) and CEPII
From The EU Conference ”The World in 2025”
Brussels, 24 September 2009

The aim of this presentation is foresight how will be the world economy in 2025, this is focused on some macro-economic projections and the role of Asia. The following forecasts are detailed such as demography and world population shares, economic growth and world GDP shares, total consumption and consumption patterns (mirrored by relative prices) and trade and market shares.

Download this file (macro_economy.pdf)macro_economy.pdf[ ]

United Nations Conference on Trade and Globalization (UNCTAD)
United Nations 2008

Development and Globalization: Facts and Figures was prepared under the auspices of UNCTAD’s Division on Globalization and Development Strategies, in collaboration with all UNCTAD divisions. In recent years it is remarkable how quick and how fundamental the role of developing economies in the global economy has changed. The biggest and the fastest-growing developing countries nowadays are considered to stabilize the world economy due to their dynamism and their openness. Developing countries accounted for 37 per cent of world merchandise exports in 2006 on a rising trend. Moreover, as many developing countries have achieved current account surpluses they have become important providers of capital for the rest of the world.

Download this file (UNCATAD.pdf)UNCATAD.pdf[ ]

World Economic Forum, 2010

It is the most comprehensive and authoritative assessment of the comparative strengths and weaknesses of national economies, used by governments, academics and business leaders. The GCR was first published in 1979 and its coverage has expanded each year since, now extending to over 130 major and emerging economies.

UCE, Ecofys, University of Utrech, Milieu en Naturr Planbureau, ECN
Netherlands Research Programme on Scientific Assessment and Policy Analysis for Climate Change, 2006

Decoupling between physical and monetary growth of the economy has been identified as one of the key strategies towards sustainable development. The extent to which economic and physical activity are decoupled from each other has important implications for long-term energy and emissions scenario modelling. This assessment project aims therefore at analyzing the relationship between physical activity and economic growth in three economic key sectors, i.e., (i) industry, (ii) transport, and (iii) households and services.

One of the main findings is that the saturation hypothesis holds in specific sectors, but in general does not hold. The saturation hypothesis assumes that with increasing GDP, human activity in physical terms will initially grow on a per capita basis, and then level off to a constant level per capita. We found a levelling-off for some types of human activity, e.g. for steel consumption, cement consumption, and household living area. But in other cases, we rather found a development where the level of human activity continues to grow with GDP growth, e.g. for freight transport, and for the consumption of plastics and paper. It should be mentioned, though, that in most cases we have studied time series of the past 30 to 40 years, and that saturation may occur in the future. This also because there are obvious limitations, such as maximum per capita car ownership or minimum number of persons per household, that in the end will affect the future development of the related activity levels.

R.Ayres, B.Warr.
INSEAD and Chalmers Institute of Technology, 2001

This article contrasts two incompatible paradigms of economics and their implication for economic growth. The first paradigm is consistent with the micro-foundations of neoclassical theory, which assume that all goods and services are produced from other goods plus value added by some combination of capital and labor. The theory does not explain growth, but simply assumes that technological progress (or multi-factor productivity gains) will continue indefinitely along the supposedly `optimal’ path. Related endogenous growth theory, attempts to explain the so-called Solow residual in terms of spillovers and/or increasing knowledge embodied in `human capital’, but this theory is unquantifiable – lacking satisfactory metrics for knowledge or human capital – and it still neglects the role of energy and materials The second paradigm focuses on the economy as a material resource processor-convertor. It interprets economic growth as an evolutionary process driven mostly by technological innovations (not by capital accumulation), with a strong focus on materials processing and energy (exergy) conversion. We measure resource inputs and resource conversion efficiency in thermodynamic terms. Using a new variable exergy services or ‘useful work’ as a factor of production, historical economic growth in the US since 1900 is reproduced quite accurately. Much of the previously unexplained residual is the result of productive improvements in the efficiency with which useful work is delivered to the economy, the cumulative result of innovation, learning-by-doing and economies of scale.

Download this file (2003P_Ayres_modelling.pdf)2003P_Ayres_modelling.pdf[ ]

Luc Soete
Maastricht University
From The EU Conference ”The World in 2025”
Brussels, 24 September 2009

In this paper, the author take inspiration from Thomas Malthus' hypothesis that food shortage and hunger would remain "nature's last most dreadful resource" and that "the power of population is so superior to the power of the earth to produce subsistence for man, that premature death must in some shape or other visit the human race". The author revise and reinterprete it into a modern and thus global version and we elaborate on such a possible new interpretation and what its policy implications might be. In a first section, and somewhat as a parenthesis, the financial crisis is briefly commented as it has unfolded over the last four months of 2008 and impacted gradually the real economy. In the second section of the paper  the different policy responses to past Malthusian challenges are reviewed: how food production succeeded particularly over the second half of the 20th Century to keep pace with rapid population growth. In a third section, the word "population" is replaced in the above cited Malthus' quote with "consumption" and it is illustrated what this might imply for global world growth and Europe's place in the world in 2025. In a fourth and final section, some initial policy conclusions are drawn.

Download this file (consumption_patterns.pdf)consumption_patterns.pdf[ ]

Angela Maddaloni, Alberto Musso, Philipp Rother, Melanie Ward-Warmedinger and Thomas Westermann

European Central Bank, 2006

This paper examines the macroeconomic consequences of future demographic trends for economic growth, financial markets and public finances. It shows that in the absence of reforms and responses by economic agents, the currently projected emographic trends imply a decline in average real GDP growth and a severe burden in terms of pay-as-you-go pension and health care systems. Population ageing will change the financial landscape, with a potentially larger role for financial intermediaries and asset prices. All this points to a need to closely monitor demographic change also from a monetary policy perspective. While population projections are surrounded by considerable uncertainty and the effects of demographic change tend to be drawn out, the magnitude of the potential effects calls for an early recognition of this issue. This paper provides some input to the examination of possible policy issues.


Tuomas Saarenheimo
Monetary Policy and Research Department
Bank of Finland Research, 2005

This study concentrates on the effects of ageing on the evolution of global interest rates and financial flows. The study uses a 73-cohort general equilibrium overlapping generations model of five major economic areas (USA, EU-15, Japan, China, and India). Utilising actual population data and UN population projections, the model yields predictions for major economic and financial variables up to 2050.

Download this file (2050_FinancingPensions.pdf)2050_FinancingPensions.pdf[ ]

Abraham Pizam, 2009

Rocket & supersonic travel, moving sidewalks, mega cruise ships (10,000). Magnetic trains, battery engines, no driving zone inner-city, airports = entertainment destinations, single contractor for ticketing, luggage centers.

Download this file (Future of Tourism.ppt)Future of Tourism.ppt[ ]

J.Willms. Conference at
Club of Amsterdam, 2007

According to the United Nations, population ageing is increasingly becoming one of the most salient social, economic and demographic phenomena of our times. By 2030 the EU can expect 14 percent fewer workers and 7 percent fewer consumers as 2005. By 2050, the number of people over 60 in Europe will reach 40% of the total population or 60% of the working age population. 80–700 million migrants by 2050! A sustainable increase of VFR-Tourism shall follow!

European Commission, 2015

Over the coming decades, as Europeans live longer and have fewer children, Europe’s population will turn increasingly ‘grey’. Demographic trends also mean that the proportion of workers supporting those in retirement will halve from an average of four today, to just two, by 2060. The 2015 Ageing Report sheds light on the economic, budgetary and societal challenges that policy makers will have to face in the future as a result of these trends. The report’s long-term projections provide an indication of the timing and scale of challenges that can be expected so as to inform European policy makers about the scale and timing of the challenges they must face.


International Monetary Fund, 2016

The analysis and projections contained in the World Economic Outlook are integral elements of the IMF’s surveillance of economic developments and policies in its member countries, of developments in international financial markets, and of the global economic system. The survey of prospects and policies is the product of a comprehensive interdepartmental review of world economic developments, which draws primarily on information the IMF staff gathers through its consultations with member countries.


Download this file (text.pdf)World Economic Outlook 2016[ ]