By European Commission, 2006.

The WETO-H2 study has developed a Reference projection of the world energy system to test different scenarios for technology and climate policies in the next half-century; it has a particular focus on the diffusion of hydrogen as a fuel. This Reference projection adopts exogenous forecasts for population and economic growth in the different world regions and it makes consistent assumptions for the availability of fossil energy resources and for the costs and performances of future technologies. It uses a world energy sector simulation model – the POLES model – to describe the development to 2050 of the national and regional energy systems and of their interactions through international energy markets, under constraints on resources and from climate policy.


EIA, U.S. Energy Information Administration, 2013.
The International Energy Outlook 2013 (IEO2013) presents an assessment by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) of the outlook for international energy markets through 2040. U.S. projections appearing in IEO2013 are consistent with those published in EIA’s Annual Energy Outlook 2013 (AEO2013) in April 2013. IEO2013 is provided as a service to energy managers and analysts, both in government and in the private sector. The projections are used by international agencies, federal and state governments, trade associations, and other planners and decisionmakers. They are published pursuant to the Department of Energy Organization Act of 1977 (Public Law 95-91), Section 205(c).
The IEO2013 energy consumption projections are divided according to Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development members (OECD)1 and non-members (non-OECD). OECD members are divided into three basic country groupings: OECD Americas (United States, Canada, and Mexico/Chile), OECD Europe, and OECD Asia (Japan, South Korea, and Australia/New Zealand). Non- OECD countries are divided into five separate regional subgroups: non-OECD Europe and Eurasia (which includes Russia); non- OECD Asia (which includes China and India); Middle East; Africa; and Central and South America (which includes Brazil). In some instances, the IEO2013 energy production models have different regional aggregations to reflect important production sources (for example, Middle East OPEC is a key region in the projections for liquids production). Complete regional definitions are listed in Appendix M.
IEO2013 focuses exclusively on marketed energy. Non-marketed energy sources, which continue to play an important role in some developing countries, are not included in the estimates. The IEO2013 projections are based on U.S. and foreign government laws in effect on September 1, 2012. The potential impacts of pending or proposed legislation, regulations, and standards are not reflected in the projections, nor are the impacts of legislation for which the implementing mechanisms have not yet been announced. The report begins with a review of world trends in energy demand and the major macroeconomic assumptions used in deriving the IEO2013 projections, along with the major sources of uncertainty in the projections. For the first time, projections extend through 2040. In addition to the Reference case projections, High Economic Growth and Low Economic Growth cases were developed to consider the effects of higher and lower growth paths for economic activity than are assumed in the Reference case. IEO2013 also includes a High Oil Price case and, alternatively, a Low Oil Price case. The resulting projections—and the uncertainty associated with international energy projections in general—are discussed in Chapter 1, “World energy demand and economic outlook.” Projections for energy consumption and production by fuel—petroleum and other liquid fuels, natural gas, and coal—are presented in Chapters 2, 3, and 4, along with reviews of the current status of each fuel on a worldwide basis. Chapter 5 discusses the projections for world electricity markets—including nuclear power, hydropower, and other marketed renewable energy resources—and presents projections of world installed generating capacity. New to this year’s outlook, Chapter 6 presents a discussion of energy used in the
buildings sector (residential and commercial). Chapter 7 provides a discussion of industrial sector energy use. Chapter 8 includes a detailed look at the world’s transportation energy use. Finally, Chapter 9 discusses the outlook for global energy-related carbon dioxide emissions.
See attached tables.
Download this file (EIA Energy outlook tables[ ]
Download this file (International Energy Outlook 2013-2040.pdf)Donwload to document[ ]


Futuris is a science & technology program from Euronews, which highlights future innovations and trends. The Euronews tv station is a 24 hour news channel which is co-owned by major national broadcasters from a total of around 20 European countries. 

Go to webpage

L’Agence de l’Environnement et de la Maîtrise de l’Energie (ADEME), 2009

Dans le cas des systèmes et réseaux électriques intelligents intégrant les énergies renouvelables, le groupe d’experts s’est accordé sur l’existence de 3 paramètres clés (« drivers ») qui, sur le long terme, joueront un rôle déterminant sur la forme et la nature des réseaux et des systèmes électriques intelligents : l’offre de produits et de services associés à l’intelligence des réseaux ; le degré et la forme de décentralisation du système et des réseaux électriques; les choix de régulation, les modèles d’affaire et les jeux d’acteurs autour des réseaux et systèmes électriques intelligents.

Directorate-General for Energy and Transport, EC 2008

The Baseline scenario finalised in November 2007 gives an update of the previous trend scenarios, such as the “Trends to 2030” published in 2003 and its 2005 update. The new Baseline scenario takes into account the high energy import price environment of recent years, sustained economic growth and new policies and measures implemented in the Member-States. The results were derived with the PRIMES model by a consortium led by the National Technical University of Athens (E3MLab), supported by some more specialised models. The Baseline scenario for the EU and each of its 27 Member- States simulates current trends and policies as implemented in the Member-States by the end of 2006.

Exxon Mobil Corporation, 2009.

The Outlook for Energy is a comprehensive look at long-term trends in energy demand, supply, emissions and technology. The report is built upon detailed analysis of data from about 100 countries, incorporating publicly available information as well as in-house expertise.

RAC Foundation, UK 2002

The freedom to travel is one of the key qualities of a democracy and we depend on the ability to move around freely to carry out our daily lives; transport is an essential part of a growing economy. Our dependence on travel, particularly by road, was shown by the fuel protests of September 2000 when small number of protesters blockaded the fuel distribution network and within a few days the country was extensively disrupted. The main cause of the protests was initially hauliers complaining about the high cost of fuel duty in the UK compared with their European competitors but it soon turned into a protest about the fuel escalator. This increase in fuel duty above inflation was first imposed by the Conservatives in 1993 and further increased by the Labour administration. Although defended as an environmental tax to lower fuel usage through reducing road use and encouraging more fuel efficient vehicles, the escalator was an easy way to collect an additional £2 billion a year.

Download this file (Monitoring_towards_2050.pdf)Monitoring_towards_2050.pdf[ ]

McCormick Rankin Cagney, et al, for the New Zealand Transport Agency.

This report provides practical guidance to central, regional, and local government agencies on how to manage the transport challenges associated with rising oil prices. It provides detailed information on:
•  Future Transport Fuel Price – Various forecasts are combined to model future transport fuel prices. This suggests that average oil prices will staying around $110 USD/barrel in the near future, but will increase to approximately $150 USD/barrel in 2012.  
•  Future Travel Demands - Models are used to predict future travel demands, taking into account fuel prices, economic growth, vehicle ownership, workforce participation, and disposable income. Under the average fuel price scenario total New Zealand vehicle travel declines below current levels until approximately 2016, after which the combined effects of population and economic growth will cause vehicle travel to increase.
Optimal Responses to High Oil Costs – Various responses are identified and evaluated in terms of their ability to reduce economic risks and help achieve other planning objectives. The recommended strategies result in a more efficient and diverse transport system, providing various economic, social and environmental benefits.

Newspaper articles summarizing this study are available at

Michael A. Alexander, 2006

A cautiously bullish view on stocks and the economy based on P/R valuation, continuation of low interest rates and the Juglar cycle. This view is critically dependent on assumptions that there are no disruptions to oil supply in the near future and (especially) that peak oil is still some years off. Not all disruptions would be bearish. Financial crisis in China could well play out positively, as the Asian crisis in the 1990's did. But factors such as a showdown with Iran have the potential for serious market declines and recession.

Download this file (Oil_Prices.pdf)Oil_Prices.pdf[ ]

Freddy Hutter. 2008

Chart for prediction and projection of Peak date, rate and decline.

To see more information...

Michael Sivak for the University of Michigan Transportation Research Institute

This study found that a 2.7% decline in vehicle travel caused by fuel price increases and a weak economy during 2007-08 resulted in much larger 17.9% to 22.1% month-to-month declines in traffic deaths, probably due to disproportionate reductions in vehicle travel by lower income drivers (who tend to be young and old, and therefore higher than average risk), and speed reductions to save fuel.

BP, 2016

This presentation contains forward-looking statements, particularly those regarding global economic growth, population and productivity growth, energy consumption, energy efficiency, policy support for renewable energies, sources of energy supply and growth of carbon emissions. Forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties because they relate to events, and depend on circumstances, that will or may occur in the future. Actual outcomes may differ depending on a variety of factors, including product supply, demand and pricing; political stability; general economic conditions; demographic changes; legal and regulatory developments; availability of new technologies; natural disasters and adverse weather conditions; wars and acts of terrorism or sabotage; and other factors discussed elsewhere in this presentation. BP disclaims any obligation to update this presentation. Neither BP p.l.c. nor any of its subsidiaries (nor their respective officers, employees and agents) accept liability for any inaccuracies or omissions or for any direct, indirect, special, consequential or other losses or damages of whatsoever kind in connection to this presentation or any information contained in it.

Download this file (bp-energy-outlook-2016.pdf)bp-energy-outlook-2016.pdf[ ]

Exxon Mobile Corporation, 2016

The Outlook for Energy is a long-term global view of energy demand and supply. Its findings help guide our long-term investments, and we share The Outlook to help promote better understanding of the issues shaping the world’s energy future.


Download this file (2016 Outlook for Energy.pdf)2016 Outlook for Energy.pdf[ ]

European Commission, 2014

The purpose of this publication is to present the new "EU Reference scenario 2013". This report focuses on trend projections understood in the sense of a Reference scenario. This Reference scenario starts from the assumption that the legally binding GHG and RES targets for 2020 will be achieved and that the policies agreed at EU level by spring 2012 as well as relevant adopted national policies will be implemented in the Member States. Following this approach the Reference scenario can help enlightening the debate on where currently adopted policies might lead the EU and whether further policy development, including for the longer term, would be needed. This scenario can therefore also serve as benchmark or reference for assessing the impacts of envisaged policy initiatives at EU level in the areas of energy, transport and climate.


European Commission, 2016

The European Commission has released its latest outlook – the EU Reference Scenario 2016 - which projects energy, transport and greenhouse gas emissions trends in the EU up until 2050.

The Reference Scenario is a projection of where our current set of policies coupled with market trends are likely to lead. The EU has set ambitious objectives for 2020, 2030 and 2050 on climate and energy, so the Reference Scenario allows policy makers to analyse the long-term economic, energy, climate and transport outlook based on the current policy framework.

The Reference Scenario is not designed as a forecast of what is likely to happen in the future. Rather, it provides a benchmark against which new policy proposals can be assessed.


Download this file (ref2016_report_final-web.pdf)EU Reference Scenario 2016[ ]

Renee Heller, Yvonne Deng & Pieter van Breevoort for Ecofys, 2012

The European Union has adopted clear emission reduction, energy savings and renewable energy targets for 2020: 20% emission reduction of GHG compared to 1990; 20% of primary energy savings and 20% renewable energy share in energy consumption. Even if the targets are met in 2020 this does not ensure that climate change is kept within 2°C in the long run. We have derived an ambitious, yet feasible energy scenario for the EU27 for 2030 which is consistent with WWF‘s global TER vision for a fully renewable global energy system by 2050. Our EU27 energy scenario envisages a share of renewable energy sources (RES) of 41% in 2030, which includes 19% from sustainable biomass. Within the power sector, which is easier to decarbonise than heat and fuels, the scenario reaches a 65% share of RES. Energy savings on primary energy are estimated to be ~38% in this scenario compared to the 2007 baseline. Energy related emission reductions compared to 1990 are estimated to be 50%. Compared to other analysed EU scenarios for 2030 the TER EU27 analysis has low final energy demand and a RES amount comparable to other studies.


Paul Scherrer Institute for World Energy Council, 2013

The WEC has built two scenarios typified by characteristics, which, each from their own perspective, may comprehensively describe large parts of the world in 2050. In this scenario exercise, the elements of the two scenarios are generalised as being applicable to the (albeit imaginary) whole world: the more consumer-driven Jazz scenario and the more voter-driven Symphony scenario. While scenarios are ‘music based’, they are completely different in nature.


Download this file (World-Energy-Scenarios_Composing-energy-futures-to-2050_Full-report.pdf)Energy futures to 2050[ ]

World Energy Council, 2016

Scenarios are plausible and challenging alternative futures. In producing the World Energy Scenarios the World Energy Council collaborated with Accenture Strategy and the Paul Scherrer Institute to explore likely futures for the Grand Transition—a world of lower population growth, radical new technologies, greater environmental challenges, and a shift in economic and geopolitical power—looking to 2060.

This report presents three exploratory scenarios—Modern Jazz, Unfinished Symphony, and Hard Rock—that provide users with a common language for thinking and talking about current events. These scenarios provide energy leaders with an open, transparent, and inclusive framework to think about a very uncertain future, and thus assist in the shaping of the choices they make. Over a period of three years, the scenarios were built by a network of more than 70 members, from over 25 countries, and quantified with a global multi-regional energy system model.



Download this file (World-Energy-Scenarios-2016_Full-Report.pdf)World Energy Scenarios[ ]

Giorgio Corbetta for European Wind Energy Association (EWEA), 2015

Recent regulatory and economic developments in the EU have significantly changed the wind energy perspective for the next 15 years. In light of uncertain governance towards achieving EU climate and energy binding targets, EWEA updated the European wind energy industry’s vision to 2030.

EWEA’s new Central Scenario expects 320 GW of wind energy capacity to be installed in the EU in 2030, 254 GW of onshore wind and 66 GW of offshore wind. Wind energy will produce 778 TWh of electricity, equal to 24.4% of the EU’s electricity demand. The wind energy industry will provide over 334,000 direct and indirect jobs in the EU and wind energy installations in 2030 will be worth €474 bn. EWEA’s Low Scenario only foresees 251 GW of wind energy installations, 22% lower than in the Central Scenario, equal to meet 19% of EU electricity demand in 2030. Such level of installations would mean 307,000 jobs in the wind energy sector, €367 bn worth of investments, 339 Mt of CO2 emissions avoided and 76,000 wind turbines installed and connected to the grid in 2030. The High Scenario expects 392 GW installed in 2030, 23% higher than in the Central Scenario, equal to meet 31% of EU electricity demand. 366,000 jobs will be generated, as well as €591 bn of investments, 554 Mt of CO2 emissions would be avoided and 114,000 wind turbines generating electricity in the EU would be installed.


U.S. Energy. Information Administration, 2016

The International Energy Outlook 2016 (IEO2016) presents an assessment by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) of the outlook for international energy markets through 2040.

IEO2016 focuses exclusively on marketed energy. Nonmarketed energy sources, which continue to play an important role in some developing countries, are not included in the estimates. The IEO2016 projections are based on existing U.S. and foreign government laws and regulations. In general, IEO2016 reflects the effects of current policies—often stated through regulations—within the projections. EIA analysts attempt to interpret the likely effects of announced country targets when the implementation of those targets will require new policies that have not been formulated or announced.

The report begins with a review of world trends in energy demand and the major macroeconomic assumptions used in deriving the IEO2016 projections, along with the major sources of uncertainty in the projections, which extend through 2040. In addition to the Reference case projections, High Economic Growth and Low Economic Growth cases were developed to consider the effects of higher and lower growth paths for economic activity than are assumed in the Reference case. IEO2016 also includes a High Oil Price case and, alternatively, a Low Oil Price case. The resulting projections—and the uncertainty associated with international energy.