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BY EUROSTAT, 2012
 
Este artículo analiza la última escenario de proyección de población de Eurostat (Europop2010) para los 27 Estados miembros de la Unión Europea (UE) y los países de la AELC. Se centra en las proyecciones de población a nivel nacional y regional, que proporciona información sobre el tamaño futuro probable y estructura de la población, de acuerdo con diferentes escenarios hipotéticos.
 
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Download this file (populations projections 2015-2060.xls)Donwload tables[ ]

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DESA, Department of Economic and Social Affairs - United Nations, 2012

The 2012 Revision is the twenty-third round of official United Nations population estimates and projections, prepared by the Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat.

It builds on the previous revision by incorporating the results of the 2010 round of national population censuses as well as findings from recent specialized demographic surveys that have been carried out around the world. These sources provide both demographic and other information to assess the progress made in achieving the internationally agreed development goals, including the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). The comprehensive review of past worldwide demographic trends and future prospects presented in the 2012 Revision provides the population basis for the assessment of those goals. According to the 2012 Revision of the official United Nations population estimates and projections, the world population of 7.2 billion in mid-2013 is projected to increase by almost one billion people within the next twelve years, reaching 8.1 billion in 2025, and to further increase to 9.6 billion in 2050 and 10.9 billion by 2100 (figure 1). These results are based on the medium-variant projection, which assumes a decline of fertility for countries where large families are still prevalent as well as a slight increase of fertility in several countries with fewer than two children per woman on average.
 
See accompanying tables content:
 
1. Tables contents.
  • Total Population 1950-2050 (XLS)
  • Total Population - Both Sexes 1950-2100 (XLS).
  • Population Growth Rate 1950-2100 (XLS).
  • Sex Ratio Of Total Population 1950-2100 (XLS).
  • Population by Age Groups, Both Sexes 1950-2100 (XLS).
  • Percentage Of Total Population By Broad Age Group, Both Sexes 1950-2100 (XLS). 

2. Tables 2 contents.

  • Urban Population by Major Area, Region and Country 1950-2050 (XLS).
  • Total Population by Major Area, Region and Country, 1950-2050 (XLS).
  • Rural Population by Major Area, Region and Country, 1950-2050 (XLS).
  • population of urban and rural areas and percentage urban 2011 (XLS).
  • percentage of population residing in urban areas by major area region and contry 1950-2050 (XLS).
  • Average Annual-Rate of Change of the Urban Population by Major Area, Region and Country, 1950-2050 (XLS).
  • Average Annual-Rate of Change of the Total Population by Major Area, Region and Country, 1950-2050 (XLS).
  • Average Annual-Rate of Change of the Rural Population by Major Area, Region and Country, 1950-2050 (XLS).
  • Average Annual-Rate of Change of the Percentage Urban by Major Area, Region and Country, 1950-2050 (XLS).
  • Average Annual-Rate of Change of the Percentage Rural by Major Area, Region and Country, 1950-2050 (XLS).

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By EUROSTAT, 2008

Population projections are ‘what-if’ scenarios that aim to provide information about the likely future size and structure of the population. As with Eurostat population projections at national level, EUROPOP2008 regional population projections present one of several possible population change scenarios at NUTS level 2 based on assumptions for fertility, mortality and migration for the period 2008-2030.  

The current regional scenario complements the demographic profile suggested by population projections produced by other statistical institutes or other international organisations, which draw alternative paths for the possible evolution of the population.

Highlights:

  • The 2008-based regional population projections EUROPOP2008 show that population may increase in two out of three regions between 2008 and 2030. 
  • However, in 2030, slightly more than half of the regions are projected to continue to increase their population. 
  • The median age of the regions’ population in 2030 is projected to be between 34.2 years and 57.0 years, while in 2008 the range was between 32.9 years and 47.8 years. 
  • Similarly, in 2030, the share of the population aged 65 years or over is expected to range between 10.4 % and 37.3 %. In 2008, the range was between 9.1 % and 26.8 %.

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By EUROSTAT, 2010

This article looks at Eurostat’s latest population projection scenario (Europop2010) for the 27 Member States of the European Union (EU) and the EFTA countries. It focuses more particularly on population ageing, undoubtedly a key demographic challenge in many European countries over the next fifty years. Its implications for socioeconomic systems, such as public pensions programmes, health care or kinship structures, may be considerable.Population projections are what-if scenarios that aim to provide information about the likely future size and structure of the population. The European Commission uses the results to analyse the impact of ageing populations on public spending.

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Department of Economic and Social Affairs
United Nations
New York, 2004

Long-range population projections are reported to 2300, covering twice as long a period as ever covered in previous United Nations projections. These projections are not done by major area and for selected large countries (China and India), as was the previous practice, but for all countries of the world, providing greater detail. In these projections, world population peaks at 9.22 billion in 2075. Population therefore grows slightly beyond the level of 8.92 billion projected for 2050 in the 2002 Revision, on which these projections are based. However, after reaching its maximum, world population declines slightly and then resumes increasing, slowly, to reach a level of 8.97 billion by 2300, not much different from the projected 2050 figure.

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Download this file (WorldPop2300final.pdf)WorldPop2300final.pdf[ ]

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ESPON Project 3.2
European Commission, 2007

This report presents several spatial scenarios, exploring alternative directions of possible trends and driving forces related to the future territorial development of the EU. Scenarios must be distinguished from predictions, presenting one most probable course of one or some related trends. A trend scenario is presented, followed by a cohesion-oriented and a competitiveness-oriented ones. The report concludes with a scenario likely to achieve a desirable territorial evolution in Europe.

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Refik Erzan, Umut Kuzubaş, Nilüfer Yıldız
Boğaziçi University, 2006

This is an econometric study aimed at estimating the eventual immigration from Turkey to the EU when Turkey becomes a full member and restrictions on labor mobility are removed. The findings suggest that a successful accession period with high growth reduces and gradually eliminates the migration pressures. The study warns that lower growth and higher unemployment associated with a suspension in Turkey's accession process may produce more immigrants than a successful membership.

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Download this file (Turkey_EU_scenarios.pdf)Turkey_EU_scenarios.pdf[ ]

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DESA, Department of Economic and Social Affairs
United Nations, 2009

Slow population growth brought about by reductions in fertility leads to population ageing, that is, it produces populations where the proportion of older persons increases while that of younger persons decreases. Population ageing is less advanced in developing countries. Nevertheless, the populations of a majority of them are poised to enter a period of rapid population ageing. Globally, the number of persons aged 60 or over is expected almost to triple, increasing from 739 million in 2009 to 2 billion by 2050. In ageing populations, the numbers of persons with older ages grow faster the higher the age range considered. Thus, whereas the number of persons aged 60 or over is expected to triple, that of persons aged 80 or over (the oldest-old) is projected to increase four-fold. Although the population of all countries is expected to age over the foreseeable future, the population will remain relatively young in countries where fertility is still high. In sharp contrast, the populations of 45 countries or areas are expected to decrease between 2010 and 2050. These countries include Belarus, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cuba, Georgia, Germany, Hungary, Japan, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldova, Poland, the Republic of Korea, Romania, the Russian Federation and Ukraine, all of which are expected to see their populations decline by at least 10 per cent by 2050.

 

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Y. Courbage for National Institute of Demographic Studies, France, 1998

The Arab countries, plus Turkey, Iran and Israel which make up a large group of states with a combined population of over 400 millions in 2000, were until very recently experiencing explosive demographic growth.However the detailed examination of the most recent developments contained in this book show that with few exceptions demographic transition is in fact now under way in each of these countries at an astonishing pace. The projections for the region as a whole are that the Total Fertility Rate will fall from 3.00 in 2000 to 2.08 by 2025. This means that in just one generation from now the differences in fertility between one side of the Mediterranean and the other may be of just a few tenths.

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