Trends

David E. Bloom and David Canning, NBER, 2004.

Transitions from high mortality and fertility to low mortality and fertility can be beneficial to economies as large baby boom cohorts enter the workforce and save for retirement, while rising longevity has perhaps increased both the incentive to invest in education and to save for retirement.

We present estimates of a model of economic growth that highlights the positive effects of demographic change during 1960-95. We also show how Ireland benefited from lower fertility in the form of higher labor supply per capita and how Taiwan benefited through increased savings rates. We emphasize, however, that the realization of the potential benefits associated with the demographic transition appears to be dependent on institutions and policies, requiring the productive employment of the potential workers and savings the transition generates. Economic projections based on an "accounting" approach that assumes constant age-specific behavior are likely to be seriously misleading.

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Bengs, C. and Schmidt-Thomé, K., ESPON, 2006

The Second Report on Economic and Social Cohesion, published in January 2001, presented for the first time a third territorial dimension of the cohesion (beside the economic and social cohesion), which calls for a better co-ordination of territorially relevant decisions. Stressing the persistence of territorial disparities within the Union, the report stated the need for a cohesion policy not limited to the less developed areas as well as the need to promote a more balanced and more sustainable development of the European territory.

The Second Cohesion Report represents in that respect a follow up of the European Spatial Development Perspective (ESDP), adopted at ministerial level in May 1999, calling for a better balance and polycentric development of the European territory.

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Barro, R.J. and J.W. Lee, 2001.

This paper presents a data set that improves the measurement of educational attainment for a broad group of contries. We extend our previous estimates of educational attainment for the population over age 15 and over age 25 up to 1995 and provide projections for 2000. We discuss the estimation method for the measures of educational attainment and relate our estimatesto alternative international measures of human capital stocks.

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Adserà, A., 2011

This paper analyzes how labor market instability since the late 1980s in Europe has mediated decisions to have a second child. In particular, I seek to determine the dimensions of economic uncertainty that affect women with different educational backgrounds. First, employing time-varying measures of aggregate market conditions for women in 12 European countries, as well as micro-measures of each woman’s labor market history, I find that delays in second births are significant in countries with high unemployment and both among women who are unemployed, particularly the least educated, and those who have temporary jobs. Holding a very short contract is shown to be more critical than unemployment for college graduates. Second, using the 2006 Spanish Fertility Survey, I present remarkably similar findings for Spain, the country with the most dramatic changes in both fertility and unemployment in recent decades: a high jobless rate and the widespread use of limited-duration contracts are found to be correlated with a substantial postponement of second births.

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Colin D. Mathers, Dejan Loncar
PLOS Medicine, November 2006.
Financial support for this project was provided by the World Health Organization (WHO)

Global and regional projections of mortality and burden of disease by cause for the years 2000, 2010, and 2030 were published by Murray and Lopez in 1996 as part of the Global Burden of Disease project. These projections, which are based on 1990 data, continue to be widely quoted, although they are substantially outdated; in particular, they substantially underestimated the spread of HIV/AIDS. To address the widespread demand for information on likely future trends in global health, and thereby to support international health policy and priority setting, we have prepared new projections of mortality and burden of disease to 2030 starting from World Health Organization estimates of mortality and burden of disease for 2002. This paper describes the methods, assumptions, input data, and results.

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Projections of Global Mortality and Burden of Disease from 2002 to 2030	[ ]

Abel, G.J., Riosmena, F., and Sander, N., 2013.

This paper explores alternative future trajectories of international migration by applying a multiregional flow model to a new set of estimates of global bilateral migration flows developed by the second author. The innovations in population projections presented here are threefold: first, the projections are based on new flow estimates that are comparable at the world level rather than commonly used net migration measures; second, a set of alternative expert-based what-if scenarios is developed and a continuation of current trends until the year 2060 as the medium variant is assumed rather than assuming a convergence to zero net migration; third projections are carried out using directional migration probabilities in a multiregional cohort-component framework, where populations of all countries are projected simultaneously. A discussion of the baseline data, assumptions and model specifications is followed by a summary of key result on projected numbers of future migrants.

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Comission of the European Communities, 2006

Demographic ageing, i.e. the increase in the proportion of older people, is above all the result of significant economic, social and medical progress giving Europeans the opportunity to live a long life in comfort and security that is without precedent in our history. However, as was stressed by the Heads of State and Government at their Hampton Court informal Summit in October 2005, it is also one of the main challenges that the European Union will have to face in the years to come.

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The demographic future of Europe – from challenge to opportunity	[ ]

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Economic and Financial Affairs, European Comission, 2006

While the European Social Model is a topical subject, in fact there does not appear to be any single model. Instead there are a wide variety of models in the Member States, reflecting different histories, circumstances and political choices that have shaped social welfare provision over the course of time. However, they are faced with new challenges and must adapt to new circumstances. One such challenge today is an ageing population, and DG ECFIN analysts are studying how Europe can respond to this demographic change.

European Social Models: the challenge of an ageing population

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G. Coomans. Institut de Sciences Mathématiques et Economiques Appliquées
EC. Directorate-General JRC, 1999

Current demographic projections show that the European Union (EU) might reach a stationary level of population in the next half century. However, enlargement to Agenda 2000 countries – Poland, Czech Republic, Hungary, Estonia, Slovenia, Cyprus - will increase the EU population by one sixth, and immigration along recent trends would postpone global demographic decline by two or more generations.

Attachments:
demogr_jrc.pdf	[ ]

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Dialog – Population Policy Acceptance Study (PPAS)
RTDinfo, Magazine on European Research. EC, 2006.

When are you ‘old’? Nowadays, this is becoming at an increasingly advanced age. The terminology reflects the nuances of a changing reality: ‘active ageing’, senior citizens, the elderly and the very elderly. But whatever the words that are used, Europe is greying and it is a phenomenon that poses major challenges for the public finances (health care, pensions), the economy (shrinking workforce) and, at the human level, for the families and social organisations whose support is so vital in the twilight years. Researchers on the Soccare and Care Work projects are investigating all of these issues.

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A. Bertaud, S. Malpezzi
The Center for Urban and Land Economics Research, University of Wisconsin, 2002

Urban economists have studied the spatial distribution of population intensively since the pioneering work of Alonso, Muth and Mills. Of course this work has a longer history, traceable at least back to von Thunen, including studies by other social scientists such as Burgess , Hoyt and Clark. In addition to population distribution, there is a related empirical literature on the distribution of real estate prices and the distribution of wages and incomes over space.

Attachments:
demogr_spatial.pdf	[ ]

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Global Demographic Change: Dimensions and Economic Significance

Urban-rural relations in Europe

International data on educational attainment: updates and implications

The interplay of employment uncertainty and education in explaining second births in Europe

Projections of Global Mortality and Burden of Disease from 2002 to 2030

The Future of International Migration

The demographic future of Europe – from challenge to opportunity

European Social Models: the challenge of an ageing population

Europe-s Changing Demography: Constrains and bottlenecks

Ageing - Turning the age pyramind on its head (1950-2050)

The Spatial Distribution of Population in 35 World Cities: The Role of Markets, Planning and Topography