By Pim Bilderbeek, 2011.

There are four likely scenarios that government officials will need to consider in planning public service accessibility and government digitalization for the next 10 years. The two axes to consider in these four likely futures are 1) the availability of public cloud infrastructure and the trust that citizens have in using this and 2) the digitalization state of the government itself. Will government embrace public cloud for both internal and external services, or will government limit the uptake of both? Will citizens trust government with their data and will everyone have equal access or will there be a dual Internet infrastructure and wide distrust? Next, four resulting scenarios:

Scenario 1: Digital Europe

Digital Europe is the preferred scenario of Neelie Kroes and the European Commission.

Scenario 2: Digital Divide

Digital Divide is a scenario where governments have embraced cloud services and are delivering on-demand services.

Scenario 3: Disconnected Government

Disconnected Government is a scenario where governments fail to implement cloud services, perhaps for budgetary reasons, perhaps for political reasons.

Scenario 4: Twentieth Century

Twentieth Century is a scenario where governments fail to implement cloud services and the Internet is no longer neutral.

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