By Gilles Bertrand (coord.), Anna Michalski and Lucio R.. Pench for the Forward Studies Unit, European Commission. 1997
Triumphant Markets Scenario.
This scenario echoes the almost uniform movement of the world towards free trade and the market economy. From the early years of the 21st century the United States continues to record excellent economic results. The economic and social systems of the rest of the world are forced to align with the main features of the American model. European political debate swings to more individualistic values - growing respect for private property, social meritocracy, etc. - and the Member States drastically reduce retirement and social protection systems. Europe becomes a dynamic economic entity characterised by strongly growing trade flows, increasing productivity in all sectors, inflation which has been curbed once and for all, and a return to full employment. On the other hand, lurk three main dangers, without the international community being able to control them. These are: the increasing inequality between rich and poor countries (globalisation continues to benefit only a minority of the world's population), the accelerating deterioration in the planet's ecosystem (the consequence of a growing number of human beings attaining western standards of consumption) and the spread of organised crime, which takes full advantage of the opportunities offered by new technologies and trade liberalisation.
The Hundred Flowers Scenario.
In this scenario a maximum use of the new information and communication technologies leads to an explosion of micro-activity, but bureaucracies (both public and private) and traditional political systems are falling apart against a background of crisis among the leading nation states and increased fragmentation of the European area. The years 2000-2005 are marked by a massive crisis of confidence in which attacks on the courts, absenteeism, tax evasion and civil disobedience completely wear down the "big bureaucracies". In this period of confusion, Europeans react by falling back on local life and making increasing use of the underground economy. Local identities are strengthened, and this is accompanied by an explosion of neighbourhood structures and the associative sector. New shared values emerge which are a nostalgic mix of local action, neighbourliness and a return to nature, and the consumer society is gradually replaced by a new form of local economy, more oriented towards the neighbourhood and quality and partly demonetised. The macroeconomic balances are more or less maintained and the economy as a whole manages to regulate itself, but the lack of effective regulatory bodies makes itself felt in more ways than one. Differences in revenue between regions increase, social differences also get wider: systems of social protection start going downhill, even if they continue to irrigate society erratically. In addition, geographical, social and political fragmentation, coupled with the erosion of established structures, gives rise to local outbreaks of violence, ethnic tensions and soaring organised crime.
Shared Responsibilities Scenario.
In Shared Responsibilities the public actor plays a dominant role. Europe carries out a wide-ranging reform of its systems of government at all geographic levels (regional, national and European) and introduces a new method of conducting public action. In a prosperous international situation it manages to carve a middle way which, while not ideal, combines the ideals of solidarity and social cohesion with technological innovation and economic efficiency. The principle of mutual commitment between the citizen and the State also becomes widespread, particularly in fields such as education and social assistance. As a result of these political advances and the favourable international climate, the overall performance of the European economy is sound and the continent's societies adjust rather well to the situation (the values of trust, solidarity and responsibility are fairly widely shared by Europeans). Poverty and geographical inequality have stopped growing but have stabilised at a high level. Social protection remains solid, even if the generosity of previous decades is clearly no longer fashionable, especially where pensions are concerned.
Creative Societies Scenario.
In Creative Societies, economic and political systems are thoroughly transformed too. The accounting and tax systems are thoroughly overhauled by introducing new taxes on pollution and international financial movements and better use of human capital and the environment. The other major innovation is the recognition and financing of new types of activity outside the market rationale (services of general interest, cultural stimulation, associative activities), each citizen having a time credit of five years to devote to them. To stimulate demand for these new goods, the Member States have introduced a system of vouchers (a proportion of wages may henceforth be paid in the form of leisure and culture cheques). The reforms have had a positive impact on social and regional inequalities and on employment. The economy takes off again gradually, borne up by services, especially the knowledge and creativity sectors (information technology, research, education, etc.), tourism and environmental protection. On the other hand, Creative Societies shows a tendency towards introversion. The scale and difficulty of internal reforms prevented the Union from developing an active external policy. Enlargement is slowed down by the new social and environmental requirements of the Member States
Turbulent Neighbourhoods Scenario.
This scenario is determined to a large extent by the accelerated deterioration in the economic and political situation in Europe's neighbours. Europe tries in vain to become a fortress, and security (both internal and external) becomes the number one public concern. This psychology of the besieged citadel prevents any large-scale economic and social reform and leads to the return in strength of the nation states. The difficult external situation has strong repercussions on Europe's internal life. National governments use security threats to reassert their governmental authority, and the pervading authoritarianism receives massive support from public opinion, which is closed to change and increasingly intolerant. The priority given to security policies pushes into the background the structural reforms required by the economy. The preoccupation with security influences all reforms in all sectors. The accession of new members is severely limited, and the creation of the European Security Council and common security agencies are the only significant advances as far as European integration is concerned.
