By European Patent Office
Four scenarios were developed to seek how intellectual property and patenting might evolve over the next fifteen to twenty years:
Market Rules Scenarios (A world where business is the dominant driver)
This scenario is the story of the consolidation of a system so successful that it is collapsing under its own weight. New forms of subject matter - inevitably including further types of services - become patentable and more players enter the system. The balance of power is held by multinational corporations with the resources to build powerful patent portfolios, enforce their rights in an increasingly litigious world and drive the patent agenda. A key goal is the growth of shareholder value. Patents are widely used as a financial tool to achieve that end. In the face of ever-increasing volumes of patent applications, various forms of rationalisation of the system occur and it moves to mutual recognition of harmonised patent rights. The market decides the fate of the system, with minor regulation of visible excesses. Patent trolling, anti-competitive behaviour and standards issues all come under scrutiny.
Go to webpageWhose Game? (A world where geopolitics is the dominant driver)
This scenario is the story of a boomerang effect which strikes today's dominant players in the patent world as a result of changing geopolitical balances and competing ambitions. The developed world increasingly fails to use IP to maintain technological superiority; new entrants try to catch up so they can improve their citizens' living standards. But many developing world countries are excluded from the process, and work instead within a 'communal knowledge' paradigm. Nationals and cultures compete and IP has become a powerful weapon in this battle. The new entrants become increasingly successful at shaping the evolution of the system, using it to establish economic advantage, adapting the existing rules as their geopolitical influence grows Enforcement becomes increasingly difficult and the IP world becomes more fragmented. Attempts are made to address the issues of development and technology transfer.
Trees of knowledge (A world where society is the dominant driver)
In the story told in this scenario, diminishing societal trust and growing criticism of the IP system result in its gradual erosion. The key players are popular movements - often coalitions of civil society, businesses, concerned governments and individuals - seeking to challenge existing norms. This kaleidoscope Society is fragmented yet united - issue by issue, crisis by crisis - against real and perceived threats to human needs: access to health, knowledge, food and entertainment. Multiple voices and multiple world views feed popular attention and interest, with the media playing an active role in encouraging debate. This loose 'knowledge movement' echoes the environmental movement of the 1980s, initially sparked by small, established special interest groups but slowly gaining momentum and raising wider awareness through alliances such as the A2K (Access to Knowledge) movement. The main issue is how to ensure that knowledge remains a common good, while acknowledging the legitimacy of reward for innovation.
Blue Skies (A world where technology is the dominant driver)
The final scenario is the story of a split in the patent system. Societal reliance on technology and growing systemic risks force this change; the key players are technocrats and politicians responding to global crises. Complex new technologies based on a highly cumulative innovation process are seen as the key to solving systemic problems such as climate change, and diffusion of technology in these fields is of paramount importance. The IP needs of these new technologies come increasingly into conflict with the needs of classic, discrete technologies. In the end, the patent system responds to the speed, interdisciplinary and complex nature of the new technologies by abandoning the one-size-fits-all model: the former patent regime still applies to classic technologies while the new ones use other forms of IP protection, such as the license of rights. The patent system relies on technology, and new forms of knowledge search and classification emerge.
