OECD, 2012
Key findings of the 2012 Transport Outlook include:
Mobility will grow strongly, particularly strong outside the OECD area:- Global passenger transport volumes could be 2 to 2.5 times as large in 2050 as they are now. Outside the OECD, passenger volumes could rise by a factor of 2.5 to 3.5; in the OECD growth could be around 30%.
- Global freight transport volumes in 2050 could be 2 to 4 times as large as they are today. Within the OECD, freight volumes could double; outside the OECD they could be more than five times as large.
CO2-emission will grow less than mobility due to carbon-saving technologies:
- CO2-emissions from transport could grow by a factor of 1.5 to 2.5 between 2010 and 2050.
- In advanced economies, emissions from passenger transport can be stabilised thanks to improved technology. Freight transport emissions will still rise, however, unless freight transport grows only half as fast as GDP.
- In emerging economies and developing countries, mobility growth is expected to be larger and emissions will grow strongly. This assumes some new technology deployment, with more efficient standard vehicles and hybrids, but not many alternative-fuel vehicles.
Mobility policy can slow down emission growth but a policy commitment is needed:
- Passenger mobility policies could reduce emission growth outside the OECD by anywhere from a quarter to one-third by 2050.Slowing-down emissions growth requires strong, enduring policy commitment. A range of measures is needed for balanced mobility, including, but not limited to: integrating public transport, to make it more seamless and more appealing to users; limiting network capacity for cars, to achieve more efficient network use; and not providing free parking.
Emission growth means that energy technology is key:
- In 2011, it was estimated that car fuel economy would need to double, at the very least, to stabilize emissions - from about 8 litres/100 km in 2008 to just under 4 litres/100 km in 2050.
- Internal-combustion engines can be made much more efficient, and downsizing cars contributes strongly to reducing energy intensity. The immediate adoption of increasingly stringent fuel-economy regulations will promote this transition.
- In the longer run, policy should be used to stimulate alternative energy sources. Diversity in transport energy is preferred to replacing fossil fuels with another dominant source. Electric vehicles are a good technological fit where there are short but frequent trips, including taxi markets and delivery of goods in urban environments.
