European Foundation for the Improvement of Living and Working Conditions, 2008
If we want to manage the fundamental drivers of transport demand, we first need to identify what the fundamental drivers are. Next, we can discuss how these driving forces can be managed and whether the benefits of these policy options are larger than the disadvantages. To gain insight into the fundamental drivers of transport demand, long term developments need to be analysed. This paper takes a look into the history of transport over the last two centuries and investigates the future for the coming half a century. This focus on the long term reveals the fundamental drivers, while neglecting all sorts of temporary and minor influences. The paper illustrates what we all know: The history of transport can be described as a continuous reduction in the friction of distance. Travelling or transporting goods, has become faster, cheaper, more comfortable and reliable. This allowed for the impressive mobility growth we have experienced. In addition, it is likely that new improvements in the price-quality ratio of transport will shape the future.
