By Deutsche Post DHL, 2012
There are five different scenarios presented for the world in 2050, each positing a future driven by a particular series of developments over the ensuing four decades.
Scenario 1: Untamed economy – impending collapse, looks at a world characterized by unchecked materialism and consumption, fed by the paradigm of quantitative growth and the rejection of sustainable development. Global trade has flourished through elimination of trade barriers. Global economic power has shifted to Asia and the formerly “emerging” countries have surpassed the West. A global transportation supergrid ensures rapid exchange of goods between centers of consumption.This untamed economy, propelled by unsustainable lifestyles and uncontrolled exploitation of natural resources, carries the seeds of its own demise: as massive climate change inches closer, natural disasters occur more often and disrupt supply chains frequently. This untamed economy, propelled by unsustainable lifestyles and uncontrolled exploitation of natural resources, carries the seeds of its own demise: as massive climate change inches closer, natural disasters occur more often and disrupt supply chains frequently.The implications for the logistics industry include a massive increase in the demand for logistics and transport services. Companies even outsource production processes to logistics companies. While climate change opened up shorter and more efficient trade corridors through the Arctic ice, an increase in extreme weather events interrupts trade routes on a frequent basis and raises capital costs for logistics companies.
Scenario 2: Mega-efficiency in Megacities, describes a world in which megacities are both the main drivers and beneficiaries of a paradigm shift towards green growth. To overcome the challenges of expanding urban structures, such as congestion and emissions, megacities have become collaboration champions, fostering open trade and global governance models in partnership with supranational institutions. Rural regions have been left behind and the nation-state has become a second-tier actor.Robotics has revolutionized the world of production and services. Consumers have switched from product ownership to rent-and use consumption. Highly efficient traffic concepts, including underground cargo transport and new solutions for public transport, have relieved congestion. Zero-emission automated plants have helped to cut carbon emissions. A global supergrid with mega transporters, including trucks, ships and aircraft, as well as space transporters, has opened important trade connections between the megacities of the world.The logistics industry is entrusted to run city logistics, utilities, as well as system services for airports, hospitals, shopping malls and construction sites, along with part of the public transport infrastructure. It also manages the complex logistics planning and operations for advanced manufacturing tasks. In response to “dematerialization” of consumption, logistics companies offer an array of renting and sharing services, as well as secure data transfer. Thus, advanced logistics services not only encompass the fast and reliable delivery of goods, but also the safe transfer of information and knowledge.
Scenario 3: Customized lifestyles, describes a world where individualization and personalized consumption are pervasive. Consumers are empowered to create, design and innovate their own products. This leads to a rise in regional trade streams, with only raw materials and data still flowing globally. Customization and regional production are complemented by decentralized energy systems and infrastructure.The new production technologies like 3D printers accelerate the customization trend and allow developing countries to leapfrog classical industrial production patterns. However, the extensive production of personalized products has increased energy and raw materials consumption overall, resulting in a global climate on course to a 3.5°C temperature increase by the end of the century.The implications for logistics include a vastly reduced need for long-distance transportation of final and semi-final goods due to the localization of value chains. At the same time, logistics providers organize the entire physical value chains. They also handle the encrypted data streams required for the transmission of construction and design blueprints for 3D printers, and have expanded into the online fabbing market. The decentralized organization of production turns strong regional logistics capabilities and a high quality last-mile network into important success factors.
Scenario 4: paralysing protectionism, describes a world where, triggered by economic hardship, excessive nationalism and protectionist barriers, globalization has been reversed. Resources are scarce, technological development is lagging and economies are in decline. High energy prices and dramatic scarcities lead to international conflicts over resource deposits. Under these circumstances, scant effort is made to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and the world climate is on the path to a 3.5° C temperature increase by the end of the century. Implications for the logistics industry include challenges posed by the decline in world trade and the resulting regionalization of supply chains. Governments view logistics as a strategic industry. As relations between some blocs and countries are extremely strained, logistics providers in bloc-free countries act as intermediaries in international trade brokerage. The growing complexity and length of the customs clearing process increases demand for specialized customs brokerage and consulting services.
Scenario 5: global resilience – local adaptation, describes a world initially characterized by a high level of consumption thanks to cheap, automated production. However, due to accelerated climate change, frequent catastrophes disrupt supply chains and lean production structures, resulting in repeated supply failures for all kinds of goods. The new economic paradigm is distinguished by a shift away from efficiency maximization to vulnerability mitigation and resilience. This radical move towards redundant systems of production and a change from global to regionalized supply chains allows the global economy to better weather troubling times.The resilient world in 2050, with regionalized trade, relies on a logistics sector that ensures supply security as a top priority, with backup infrastructure to guarantee reliable transport in unstable and hazardous times. However, such extensive backup systems are asset-heavy and conflict with the aim of carbon reduction. To counter this effect and balance energy efficiency and supply chain resilience, sophisticated logistics planning is used to achieve high capacity utilization. In addition, instead of complex just-in-time delivery processes, huge warehouse structures located close to the manufacturer are seen as indispensable buffers.
