By Peter H. Verburg, Derek B. van Berkel , Anne M. van Doorn, Michiel van Eupen,Harm A. R. M. van den Heiligenberg, 2008

Global Economy scenario

The Global Economy scenario (A1) describes a world with less government intervention and fewer borders in comparison with today. Trade barriers are removed and there is an open flow of capital, people and goods, leading to rapid economic growth. Strong technological development will increase agricultural productivity. The role of the government is very limited and nature/environmental problems are not seen as a priority for legislation. Therefore, no targets are specified for biofuel production/consumption. Urbanisation is highest in the Global Economy scenario but concentrated in a small number of regions. Despite these overall trends it is clear that large regional differences occur.

Continental Markets scenario

The Continental Markets scenario (A2) depicts a world of divided regional blocks in which each block is striving for self sufficiency, in order to be less reliant on other blocks. Agricultural trade barriers and support mechanisms continue to exist. A minimum of government intervention is preferred, resulting in loosely interpreted directives and regulations. Also in this scenario no assumptions are made with respect to policies concerning biofuels.The Continental Market scenario shows large areas with expansion of agricultural area in order to meet the food, feed and fuel demands under conditions of high border protection combined with strong economic growth in Europe.

Global Cooperation scenario

The Global Cooperation scenario (B1) represents different dynamics of land use. This scenario depicts a world of successful international cooperation aimed at reducing poverty and environmental problems. Trade barriers will be removed while governance aims at protecting the cultural and natural heritage values. A 5.75% blending obligation on the share of biofuels in the transport sector is assumed from 2010 onward.

Regional Communities scenario

People are assumed to have a strong focus on their local and regional community and prefer locally produced food in the Regional Communities scenario (B2). Agricultural policy is assumed to aim at self sufficiency and ecological stewardship is important. Strong government interventions through restrictions, spatial planning and incentives to maintain small scale agriculture are characteristic for this scenario. At the same time a 5.75% blending obligation on  the share of biofuels in the transport sector is assumed.The Continental Market scenario shows large areas with expansion of agricultural area in order to meet the food, feed and fuel demands under conditions of high border protection combined with strong economic growth in Europe.

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