European Commission, 2011.

 

Agricultural market developments have attracted considerable attention recently, due to

increasing consumer food prices and sharp short-term price fluctuations of agricultural

commodity prices. This medium term outlook provides a projection for major EU agricultural

commodity markets and agricultural income until the year 2020, based on a set of coherent

assumptions.

Under the assumptions made, agricultural commodity prices are expected to stay firm over

the medium term, supported by factors such as the growth in global food demand, the

development of the biofuel sector and a prolongation of the long-term decline in food crop

productivity growth. High prices at world level would support EU agricultural exports in

spite of the decline in competitiveness, particularly with the assumed appreciation of the

EUR.

EU commodity markets are expected to remain balanced - on average - over the outlook

period, without the need for market intervention. Prospects for agricultural income display a

small growth rate at EU level after 2011, resulting from continuing decline in labour input

rather than from income increases at sector level.

 

 

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