By The Government Office for Science UK, 2011.
This report examines both global and within-country migration trends. It finds that: millions will be 'trapped' in vulnerable areas and unable to move; people are as likely to move towards areas of environmental risk as to move away; but also that migration can transform people's ability to cope with environmental change. Environmental change will affect migration through its influence on economic, social and political drivers – which themselves affect migration. However, the range and complexity of the interactions between these drivers means that it will rarely be possible to distinguish individuals for whom environmental factors are the sole driver ('environmental migrants'). Nonetheless, there are potentially grave implications of future environmental change for migration, requiring a strategic approach to policy that acknowledges the opportunities provided by migration in certain situations. People are as likely to migrate to places of environmental vulnerability as from these places. For example, compared to 2000, there may be between 114 and 192 million additional people living in floodplains in urban areas in Africa and Asia by 2060.
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