By National Intelligence Council, 2008

This study, prepared by the US National Intelligence Council, presents four scenarios for global economic and political futures. The study identifies trends that are seen as relatively certain, e.g.:

• A global multipolar system is emerging with the rise of China, India, and other countries — the role and authority of 'the west' will decline
• The United States will remain the single most powerful country but will be less dominant
• Economic and population growth will put pressure on water, energy and natural resources
• The potential for conflict will increase owing to rapid changes in parts of the greater Middle Eastand the spread of lethal capabilities.
• The study also identifies key uncertainties, which include the following:
• The extent of global transition away from oil and natural gas by 2025
• The severity of local impacts of climate change
• Advances in democracy in Russia and China
• Reduction in Middle East instability
• Europe and Japan's ability to address social and economic challenges from ageing
• Whether global powers can adapt international institutions to the new geopolitical landscape

A World Without the West

In this fictionalized account, the new powers supplant the West as leaders on the world stage.  This is not inevitable nor the only possible outcome of the rise of new states.  Historically the rise of new powers—such as Japan and Germany in the late 19^th and early 20^th centuries—presented stiff challenges to the existing international system, all of which ended in worldwide conflict.  More plausible in our minds than a direct challenge to the international system is the possibility that the emerging powers will assume a greater role in areas affecting their vital interests, particularly in view of what may be growing burden fatigue for Western countries.

October Surprise

In the following fictionalized account, global inattention to climate change leads to major unexpected impacts, thrusting the world into a new level of vulnerability.  Scientists are currently uncertain whether we already have hit a tipping point at which climate change has accelerated and whether there is little we can do—including reducing emissions—that will mitigate effects even over the longer term.  Most scientists believe we will not know whether we have hit a tipping point until it is too late.  Uncertainties about the pace and specific vulnerabilities or impacts from climate change are likely to persist over the next 15-20 years even if our knowledge about climate change deepens, according to many scientists.

BRICs’ Bust-Up

In this fictionalized scenario, Chinese fears of disruption of China’s energy supplies spark a clash with India.  With increasing resource constraints likely out to 2025, disputes over resources appear to us to be a growing potential source of conflict.  The sense of vulnerability is heightened by the dwindling number of energy producers and increasing concentration in unstable regions such as the Middle East.  A world in which there are more confrontations over other issues—such as new trade barriers—is likely to increase the potential for any dispute to escalate into conflict. As outlined in this scenario, misperceptions—along with miscom- munications—could play as important a role as any actual threats.  Also illustrated by this scenario is the competition by rising powers for resources.  Both China and India—though rich in coal—have limited and dwindling oil and gas reserves and must rely on foreign sources.  In thinking about the increased potential for conflict in this multipolar world, we need to keep in mind the scope for the emerging powers to clash with one another.

Politics Is Not Always Local

In this fictionalized scenario, a new world emerges in which nation-states are not in charge of setting the international agenda. The dispersion of power and authority away from nation-states has fostered the growth of sub-national and transnational entities including social and political movements.  Growing public concerns about environmental degradation and government inaction come together in this example to “empower” a network of political activists to wrest control of the issue out of country-level officials in capitals.  Global communications technology enables individuals to affiliate directly with identity-driven groups and networks that transcend geographic boundaries.  Environmentalism is an issue for which there is a widespread confluence of interests and desires.

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