By National Oceanic and atmospheric administration (NOAA), 2009
The scenarios conveyed in this document are derived from different combinations of outcomes at the extreme ends of three axes of uncertainty: the nature and mix of economic activity; governance and decision-making processes; and the interaction between society and the physical environment. The scenarios also include a range of forces that are fairly certain to occur and consequently appear nearly identically in each scenario, although their impacts may vary substantially.
Too little, too late?
Despite smart economic growth based on alternative energy and sustainable production, and despite collaboration on environmental policy at all levels of government, it may be too late to stop abrupt climate change and its social, economic, and environmental impacts. Key drivers: Smart economic growth is implemented, and government institutions collaborate in policy making and implementation, but the global environment doesn’t appear to be responding. Hallmarks: Strong economic growth is fueled by alternative energy; investments and global trade; a growing knowledge and information about environmental threats, and new observation and analysis capabilities; there is strong international cooperation on climate change; government creates new markets and facilitates the transition of society; demand for fossil fuels remains high and the environment appears too sick to respond; turbulent and massive shifts in weather and the earth’s ecosystems are occurring; experts disagree over a policy shift from mitigation to adaptation.
Green Chaos
Environmental policy at all levels of government is fragmented and disorganized, but a growing market for alternative energy and other sustainable products leads to smart economic growth and an increasingly harmonious relationship between humans and nature supported by the forces of supply and demand. Key drivers: Smart growth policies are adopted and successfully implemented, the interaction between the environment and society becomes harmonious, and government institutions act according to self-interests in a fragmented fashion. Hallmarks: markets deal effectively with environmental uncertainties; multinationals, venture capital firms, and state-owned enterprises in developing countries invest aggressively in green and sustainable development solutions; carbon taxes in the United States, and an uneven patchwork of regional and local government policies exist; government policy makers are overwhelmed by the environmental and economic uncertainties; and any of the feared economic consequences from externality pricing and heavily regulating resource usage were hype.
Carbon Junkies
Environmental policy at all levels of government is collaborative, particularly in developing advanced environmental science and technology, but business-as-usual practices in industry and the public’s focus on traditional metrics of economic success lead, ultimately, to extensive environmental degradation. Key Drivers: Governments develop innovative policies and collaborative mechanisms, but business-as-usual forces are powerful and continue to prevail. The environment starts to change significantly while the U.S. economy and the rest of the world appear unable to respond. Hallmarks: in developed and developing countries, the old economic systems continue to exploit cheap, fossil energy in stimulating economic growth; what many scientists (and Al Gore) long predicted has been confirmed: The world is running out of time in its use of carbon; in the United States, productive agricultural land shrinks significantly; Arctic ice in summer months disappears in the wake of the dramatically warming climate; Scientists agree that large-scale change in the climate system is taking place and the change cannot be reversed, even with major mitigation efforts worldwide, for decades.
