By World Business Council for Sustainable Future, 2010
Business-as-usual outlook to 2050.
Growth: Population, urbanization and consumption Between now and 2050 the global population is expected to increase from 6.9 billion to more than 9 billion, with 98% of this growth happening in the developing and emerging world, according to UN estimates. The global urban population will double. Meanwhile, populations are aging and stabilizing in many developed countries. Local demographic patterns will become increasingly diverse.There have been improvements in recent decades in terms of economic growth in many parts of the world, as well as in areas such as infant and maternal mortality, food supply, and access to clean water and education. However, extreme poverty continues to persist. Most of the economic growth will happen in developing or emerging economies. Many people will be moving up the economic ladder toward a middle class standard of living, consuming many more resources per capita. As this growth and development takes place, substantial changes will be required in all countries in order for 9 billion people to live well, within the limits of one planet by 2050. Inertia and inadequate governance. The governance and policy responses to manage this growth often happen in silos and are limited by short term, localized political pressures, and thus fall short of the level of commitment needed to make significant progress. In addition, the choices countries, companies, communities and individuals make are often characterized by inertia due to short-term goals and self interest. Continuing to invest in polluting or energy-inefficient types of infrastructure and opting for high-footprint consumer lifestyle preferences are examples of such choices that perpetuate the status quo. Degradation: Climate change and deteriorating ecosystems. The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment found that 15 of the 24 ecosystem services they evaluated have been degraded over the past half century. A rapid and continuing rise in the use of fossil fuel-based energy and an accelerating use of natural resources are continuing to affect key ecosystem services, threatening supplies of food, freshwater, wood fiber and fish. More frequent and severe weather disasters, droughts and famines are also impacting communities around the world.
The Vision 2050
In 2050, some 9 billion people live well, and within the limits of the planet. The global population has begun to stabilize, mainly due to the education and economic empowerment of women and increased urbanization. More than 6 billion people, two-thirds of the population, live in cities. People have the means to meet their basic human needs, including the need for dignified lives and meaningful roles in their communities.
