By Forum for the future, 2010
Low-income countries are being affected first and worst by climate change. And climate change is a long-term challenge, where a long-term approach is essential to manage the risks and seize the opportunities it poses. Scenarios for low-income countries in a climate -changing world are listed below:
Reversal of Fortunes
This is a fraught world where the urgent need to cut carbon dominates international relations. Drastic measures to decarbonise the global economy spell crisis for many industries and no country is immune to the pain. Having rapidly developed ± mostly on carbon-intensive pathways ± many low-income countries of the 2010s are now middle-income. They speak with a strong, united voice on the world stage, holding wealthier nations to account for the problems of climate change. These new emerging economies are the least resilient and are suffering the most, and with the world focussed on cutting carbon there is little money in the pot for aid.
Age of Opportunity
This is a world where low-income countries have received significant and effective development assistance as part of a strong climate change deal. They play a growing role in the world economy and are spearheading a low-carbon energy revolution, leapfrogging the old high carbon technologies in pursuit of a prosperous and clean future. Cultural confidence in these countries is high: their politicians take a prominent place on the world stage, and increasingly people reject high-carbon Western lifestyles as uncivilised. In many states power has devolved to regions and communities; in some countries this has brought positive change, but in others large areas have fallen under the control of local mafia and warlords.
Coping Alone
This is a world in which low-income countries feel increasingly abandoned. Two decades of high oil prices and economic stagnation have driven the global community apart. Attempts to coordinate action to reduce carbon emissions have been dropped. Regional blocs now focus on their own concerns, such as food security, resource shortages and adapting to climate change. Low-income countries face all these problems with few resources and limited support from wealthy nations; some states have collapsed. New models of business and governance are starting to emerge from the shadows of increasing inequality.
The Greater Good
This is a world where people understand that economies rely fundamentally on access to natural resources. Climate change is seen as the ultimate resource crunch, but there are equal concerns over water, food and soil depletion. States manage natural resources pragmatically to give the greatest good for the greatest number and are prepared to take draconian action to protect them. Individual liberties and choice have suffered, but most people feel that their future is at least being safeguarded. Those low-income countries with natural resources prosper; those without have little bargaining power. Tensions between rival resource blocs are intense, and sometimes spill over into violent conflict.
