By European Environment Agency - EEA, 2011
Today, many of society's most pressing problems are long-term policy challenges, lasting a generation or more. Policymakers and business leaders often face strategic decisions with uncertain future outcomes. Yet, despite numerous unpredictable factors beyond their control, decision-makers need to be confident that they can achieve specific outcomes. Failing to do so could result in systemic failures with major consequences for society. The environment sector presents a good example of these challenges. Environmental policymaking is characterised by highly complex problems and uncertainty about long-term future developments. Problems often unfold over several decades, driven by a myriad of forces across multiple scales, resulting in complex interlinkages and feedback loops (Volkery and Ribeiro, 2009). And failure to manage such risks could lead to catastrophic impacts.
Over recent decades, academia and the public and private sectors have become increasingly interested in approaches and tools for long-term future analysis. The tools now available to make long-term decisions more robust include horizon‑scanning approaches, model-based projections and comprehensive scenario-planning approaches (EEA, 2009; EFMN, 2009; Zurek and Henrichs, 2007).
 BLOSSOM — Bridging long-term scenario and strategy analysis | [ ] |
