Michael A. Alexander, 2006
A cautiously bullish view on stocks and the economy based on P/R valuation, continuation of low interest rates and the Juglar cycle. This view is critically dependent on assumptions that there are no disruptions to oil supply in the near future and (especially) that peak oil is still some years off. Not all disruptions would be bearish. Financial crisis in China could well play out positively, as the Asian crisis in the 1990's did. But factors such as a showdown with Iran have the potential for serious market declines and recession.
 Oil_Prices.pdf | [ ] |
