U.S. Energy. Information Administration, 2016

The International Energy Outlook 2016 (IEO2016) presents an assessment by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) of the outlook for international energy markets through 2040.

IEO2016 focuses exclusively on marketed energy. Nonmarketed energy sources, which continue to play an important role in some developing countries, are not included in the estimates. The IEO2016 projections are based on existing U.S. and foreign government laws and regulations. In general, IEO2016 reflects the effects of current policies—often stated through regulations—within the projections. EIA analysts attempt to interpret the likely effects of announced country targets when the implementation of those targets will require new policies that have not been formulated or announced.

The report begins with a review of world trends in energy demand and the major macroeconomic assumptions used in deriving the IEO2016 projections, along with the major sources of uncertainty in the projections, which extend through 2040. In addition to the Reference case projections, High Economic Growth and Low Economic Growth cases were developed to consider the effects of higher and lower growth paths for economic activity than are assumed in the Reference case. IEO2016 also includes a High Oil Price case and, alternatively, a Low Oil Price case. The resulting projections—and the uncertainty associated with international energy.