By International Energy Agency, 2009
WEO-2009 sets out, for key countries and regions (including the United States, Japan, the European Union, Russia, China and India), the energy transformation that each might undertake, sector by sector, if the world were to adopt a 450 ppm trajectory. It also describes the current trends in energy use and emissions in a fully updated Reference Scenario, detailing the implications of current policies and taking into account the global financial and economic crisis.
Reference Scenario. This scenario shows how global energy markets would evolve if governments make no change to their exisiting policies. It takes account of government policies and measures enacted or adoptedby mid-2009. Under this scenario, in the absence of new initiatives to tackle climate change, rising global fossil fuel use increases energy-related CO2 emissions from 29 gigatonnes (Gt) in 2007 to over 40 Gt in 2030 and contributes to the deterioration of ambient air quality with serious public health and environmental effects. Such a scenario would result, according to IEA analysis, in a concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere of around 1 000 ppm in the long term.
450 Scenario. This scenario analyses measures in the energy sector which might be taken in order to fulfil a coordinated global commitment with the ultimate aim of stabilising the concentration of greenhouse gas-emissions in the atmosphere at 450 ppm CO2 equivalent. This level of concentration is expected to give rise to a global temperature increase of 2C. The 450 scenario also reflects a plausible set of commitments and policies which could emerge from the climate-change negotiations in the period through to 2020. The scenario entails USD 10.5 trillion more investment in energy infrastructure and energy-related capital stock globally than in the reference scenario. (USD 4.7 trillion in transport; USD 2.5 trillion in buildings; USD 1.7 trillion in power plants; USD 1.1 trillion in industry; USD 0.4 trillion in biofuel production.) These costs are at least partly offset by economic, health and energy-security benefits.
Under the 450 scenario. Global energy-related CO2 emissions peak at 30.9 Gt just before 2020 and decline thereafter to 26.4 Gt in 2030. Primary energy demand grows by 20 % between 2007 and 2030, which corresponds to an annual growth rate of 0.8 %. The average emissions intensity of new cars is reduced by more than half, and their oil needs fall. The share of non-fossil fuels in the overall primary energy mix increases from 19 % in 2007 to 32 % in 2030, when CO2 emissions per unit of GDP are less than half their 2007 level. Fossil fuels nonetheless remain the dominant energy sources in 2030. End-use efficiency accounts for more than half the total saving in energy emissions and power-generation accounts for more than two-thirds of the savings. By 2030, transport demand for oil is cut by 12 million barrels per day, which equals more than 70 % of oil savings.
