Millennium Project
Global Futures Studies & Research, 2008
The world is increasingly aware that fundamental changes will be necessary to meet the growing demand for energy. There are many possible scenarios about what may emerge in the foreseeable future. Four such scenarios were constructed by the Millennium Project and are presented here.
Business as usual – The sceptic
(Moderate growth in technological breakthroughs, in environmental movement impacts, in economic growth and moderate changes in geopolitics and war/peace/ terrorism)
This scenario assumes that the global dynamics of change continue without great surprises or much change in energy sources and consumption patterns other than those that might be expected as a result of the change dynamics and trends already in place. So, yes, it’s easy to be a sceptic. We’ve heard it all before. What people miss most about the old days is vacations in distant places, freedom to drive what they wanted and where they wanted, having a government they could believe in, that tells the truth—if indeed anyone knows what truth is any more—and stability. Today there is too much pessimistic thinking about energy. Reserves have grown in the past when depletion was forecast, and now many people in the industry say it will happen again. As for developing new energy systems, with effort and fortitude the world powers can solve the problem; they can do anything they want to do. But the World Soccer Games are on TV now, so let’s worry about all this tomorrow.
Environmental Backlash
(Moderate growth in technological breakthroughs High environmental movement impacts, in economic growth and moderate changes in geopolitics and war/peace/terrorism)
This scenario assumes that the international environmental movement becomes much more organized; some groups lobby for legal actions and new regulations and sue for action in the courts, while others become violent and attack fossil energy industries. Technological breakthroughs, regulatory changes, and increased public awareness of the energy-environment linkages have changed the mix of energy usage. For example, hybrid cars now outsell gasoline-only cars, and biofuel and electric cars are catching up fast. The big promise of nanotechnology to decrease manufacturing unit costs, requiring a smaller volume of materials and energy usage and hence lowering the environmental impact and increasing productivity, is just now on the horizon. In the meantime, over one-third of our transportation needs are still met by petroleum. The oil producers also continue to supply the needs of aviation, plastic, and pharmaceutical industries for the foreseeable future. Unfortunately, the dynamics set in motion over the past will continue climate change for some years to come. Although great gains have been made in both energy efficiency and the production of energy via non-greenhouse-producing systems, humans still emit about 9 billion tons of carbon per year. Granted, this is less than the forecast back in 2005, but it is still too much, since the absorption capacity of carbon by oceans and forests is only about 3 billion tons per year. If we are to avoid the point of inflection for a serious runaway greenhouse effect, we still have to continue improving. We must hope that the new polices, technologies, and cultural patterns will make the impacts less traumatic that they might have been.
High-tech economy – Technology pushes off the limits
(High growth in technological breakthroughs, low environmental movement impacts, high economic growth and few changes in geopolitics and war/peace/terrorism)
This scenario assumes that technological innovations accelerate beyond current expectations and have impacts in the energy supply mix and consumption patterns of a magnitude similar to the Internet’s impact in the 1990s.
Political Turmoil
(Moderate growth in technological breakthroughs, low environmental movement impacts, moderate/low economic growth and major changes in geopolitics and war/peace/terrorism)
This scenario assumes increasing conflicts and wars, with several countries collapsing into failed states, leading to increasing migrations and political instabilities around the world.
