PASHMINA., 2010.

 

PASHMINA WP1 Global meta-analysis aimed to deliver comprehensive qualitative scenarios for Europe by scanning the range of development options up to 2030 and 2050, harmonising and integrating quantitative results from many previous future-studies and developing a new generation of long term metamodels.

The analysis has been done developing two parallel streams of investigation: Qualitative analysis: identification of “shifts” in future trends in relation to a plurality of socio-economic, technological, territorial, environmental and institutional factors (Task 1.1). This task aimed to develop visions of alternative futures (exploratory scenarios) based on a qualitative analysis of different pathways of development dependent on key drivers and paradigm shifts. A community of experts of different disciplines has been involved in a DELPHI survey. Special attention has been given to possible paradigm shifts in the energy-transport-environment nexus and the land-use and territorial functions within the next decades in Europe, developing separate analyses for: 1) energy transition the climate change challenge; 2) changes in urban form and dominant transport patterns; 3) changes in rural land use and biodiversity. Quantitative analysis: developing of meta-models and long-term forecasts (Tasks 1.2 to 1.5). The metamodels address the main long-term evolutions of key economic, social, technological and environmental indicators, showing up possible future states of the system at 2050, including the impact of different paradigm shifts that may result by a number of unfolding demographic economic, social and cultural trends, global environmental changes and breakthrough discontinuities, as for instance the emergence of new technologies and applications (e.g. nanotechnologies, competitive solar energy, zero-emission technological process etc.).