OECD, 2009
Over the past two decades, biotechnology has provided a motor for environmentally sustainable production and for the development of a diverse range of innovative products. The continued commercial application of biotechnology could lead to the development of a bioeconomy, where a substantial share of economic output is partly dependent on the development and use of biological materials. The potential economic and environmental benefits of biotechnology have created a growing strategic interest in the bioeconomy in both OECD and non-OECD countries. But for the bioeconomy to succeed, considerable uncertainties and global challenges will need to be addressed. Innovative policy frameworks, strategic thinking by both governments and firms, and citizen support will be required to meet these challenges.
Getting the most out of the bioeconomy will require identifying and preparing for a range of possible futures to prevent locking-in inferior technological solutions. To achieve this, broad approaches, such as creating and maintaining markets for environmentally sustainable products, funding basic and applied research, and investing in multi-purpose infrastructure and education, will need to be combined with shorter term policies, over the next five years, to establish a foundation for future applications. These foundational policies include:
1. In agriculture, encourage the application of biotechnology to improve plant and animal varieties through improving access to technologies for use in a wider range of plants, expanding the number of firms and research institutes that can use biotechnology (particularly in developing countries), and fostering public dialogue.
2. In health, develop regulatory, research, and health record systems which can link prescribing histories, genetic and other information, to support long-term follow-up research into health outcomes.
3. In industry, increase support for the adoption and use of internationally accepted standards for life cycle analysis, along with other incentives to reward environmentally sustainable technologies (e.g. boosting research into high energy density biofuels).
Capther 7 describes a “probable” bioeconomy in 2030 and develops two fictional scenarios that explore the interaction of different factors on possible futures. The “probable” bioeconomy builds on the types of products that are likely to reach the market by 2015. Within the OECD region, biotechnology could contribute to 2.7% of GDP in 2030, with the largest economic contribution of biotechnology in industry and in primary production. The economic contribution of biotechnology could be even greater in developing countries, due to the importance of these two sectors to their economies.
The scenarios assume an increasingly multi-polar world, with no single country or region dominating world affairs. They include plausible events that could influence the emerging bioeconomy. The results highlight the importance of good governance, including international cooperation, and technological competitiveness in influencing the future. Complex scientific challenges and poorly designed regulations could reduce the ability of industrial biotechnologies to compete with other alternatives. For instance, rapid reductions in the cost of renewable electricity combined with technical breakthroughs in battery technology could result in electrical vehicles outcompeting biofuel transport systems. Public attitudes could result in some biotechnologies not reaching their potential. An example is predictive and preventive medicine, where the advance of this technology could be limited by public resistance to poorly planned and intrusive healthcare systems.
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