By Nora Dahlhaus and Daniela Weißkopf, 2017
The world is changing rapidly. Political, economic, social and environmental disruptions are leading to growing insecurity within states and societies around the world about what the future might bring. In the European Union, the political uncertainty which became painfully visible through the Brexit referendum in 2016 has shaken the confidence of many Europeans in a construct which they had previously taken for granted. In this and similar contexts, scenario building has become a popular instrument to deal with uncertainties and prepare for possible future realities. Scenarios are
an important instrument to foster future strategies for international cooperation and to prevent crisis dynamics. By illustrating the different ways in which current global challenges might develop in the future, they urge the international community to consider the long-term effects of the decisions policy-makers take today. This Global Dialogue depicts the progress in the field of scenario building as well as the possibilities, problems and pitfalls that come along with it. With the explanation of techniques and examples, the reader will be able to understand the theoretical and practical use of scenarios, as well as their shortcomings and failures.
